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Dourados vs Aquidauanense

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Barcos Gabriel
48' Event
Barcos Gabriel
(Penalty)
53' Event
Barcos Gabriel

AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense 2025 game between Dourados and Aquidauanense finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Dourados.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Dourados
20%
Draws
60%
Aquidauanense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aquidauanense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Aquidauanense have managed 1.34 goals a game lately — Dourados are scoring more at 1.36.
  • Model gives Aquidauanense a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Sul-Matogrossense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Dourados Clean Sheet 16%
Aquidauanense Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dourados Aquidauanense
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 12 12
Draws 12 5
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.36 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.09 1.76
Expected Goals (xG) 0.78 1.48
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 2, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Aquidauanense
5:1
Feb 21, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Aquidauanense
1:1
Jan 24, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Aquidauanense vs Dourados
1:0
Feb 25, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Aquidauanense vs Dourados
2:2
Jan 22, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Aquidauanense
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dourados Compare

Top Goalscorer Barcos Gabriel
2 Goals
Assists Leader Flaviano
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.6
Avg xA / game 0.39

Aquidauanense Compare

Top Goalscorer Wolfart Igor
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.82

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dourados 19 / 100
Aquidauanense 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dourados Aquidauanense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aquidauanense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Dourados scored in 76% of their last 33 outings.

Aquidauanense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Dourados went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dourados VS Aquidauanense
1 Goals Scored 1.57
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.57
75% Over 1.5 71%
38% Over 2.5 29%
25% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Dourados

(Home)
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Dourados
3 : 3
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
21 Feb
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
15 Feb
Dourados
7 : 2
Bataguassu
Page 1 of 7

Aquidauanense

(Away)
02 Aug
Aquidauanense
2 : 0
Uniao ABC
26 Jul
EC Campo Grande
1 : 3
Aquidauanense
20 Jul
Sao Gabriel MS
1 : 2
Aquidauanense
11 Jul
Aquidauanense
2 : 0
7 de Setembro
04 Jul
Esporte Clube Taveiropolis
0 : 1
Aquidauanense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivinhema 9 6 1 2 21:7 19
2 Pantanal 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
3 Dourados 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
4 Operario MS 9 5 1 3 11:12 16
5 Costa Rica 9 3 5 1 14:10 14
6 Aguia Negra 9 3 2 4 14:14 11
7 Naviraiense 9 2 3 4 11:14 9
8 Corumbaense 9 2 2 5 8:14 8
9 Coxim 9 2 1 6 7:18 7
10 Aquidauanense 9 1 1 7 12:29 4
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sul-Matogrossense 2 (Main)