Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dourados vs Naviraiense

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Fogliato D.
86' Event
Roger Henrique

AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense 2025 game between Dourados and Naviraiense finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Dourados.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Dourados
35%
Draws
40%
Naviraiense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Naviraiense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Dourados haven't matched Naviraiense's recent run of results.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Dourados taking it.
  • Regular Sul-Matogrossense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Dourados Clean Sheet 68%
Naviraiense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dourados Naviraiense
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 11 13
Draws 11 9
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 1.43 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Naviraiense vs Dourados
3:1
Feb 15, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Naviraiense
2:0
Apr 6, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Naviraiense vs Dourados
4:1
Mar 19, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Naviraiense
1:3
Mar 13, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Naviraiense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dourados Compare

Top Goalscorer Fogliato D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Roger Henrique
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Naviraiense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dourados 46 / 100
Naviraiense 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dourados Naviraiense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Dourados found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Naviraiense conceded in 64% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Dourados stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dourados VS Naviraiense
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Dourados

(Home)
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Dourados
3 : 3
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
21 Feb
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
15 Feb
Dourados
7 : 2
Bataguassu
Page 1 of 6

Naviraiense

(Away)
18 Mar
Naviraiense
0 : 4
Bataguassu
15 Mar
Bataguassu
0 : 1
Naviraiense
01 Mar
Aguia Negra
1 : 2
Naviraiense
22 Feb
Naviraiense
0 : 0
Operario MS
15 Feb
Costa Rica
1 : 1
Naviraiense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivinhema 9 6 1 2 21:7 19
2 Pantanal 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
3 Dourados 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
4 Operario MS 9 5 1 3 11:12 16
5 Costa Rica 9 3 5 1 14:10 14
6 Aguia Negra 9 3 2 4 14:14 11
7 Naviraiense 9 2 3 4 11:14 9
8 Corumbaense 9 2 2 5 8:14 8
9 Coxim 9 2 1 6 7:18 7
10 Aquidauanense 9 1 1 7 12:29 4
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sul-Matogrossense 2 (Main)