Sport Picks

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade des Martyrs, Kinshasa

D.R. Congo

1 - 2

Ethiopia

Our Tip

Match Events

36'

Desta B.

Assist: Wolde B.

46'

Sub

Sadiki N. In: Balikwisha W.

Out: Sadiki N.

46'

Sub

Kioso P. In: Kalulu G.

Out: Kioso P.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Ethiopia in this Africa Cup of Nations 2025 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%

D.R. Congo

20%

Draws

57%

Ethiopia

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ethiopia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence

Ethiopia haven't matched D.R. Congo's recent run of results.
57% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
D.R. Congo have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Ethiopia, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
These two have met 4 times recently and D.R. Congo have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 51.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 0%

Over 4.5 Goals 0%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%

D.R. Congo Clean Sheet 26%

Ethiopia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	D.R. Congo	Ethiopia
Matches Played	32	29
Wins	19	11
Draws	4	5
Losses	9	13
Goals Scored	1.44	1.14
Goals Conceded	0.75	1.21
Expected Goals (xG)	0.85	0.79
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 19, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

D.R. Congo vs Ethiopia

1:2

Sep 9, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Ethiopia vs D.R. Congo

0:2

Jan 17, 2016 African Nations Championship

D.R. Congo vs Ethiopia

3:0

Jan 18, 1968 Africa Cup of Nations

Ethiopia vs D.R. Congo

2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

D.R. Congo Compare

Top Goalscorer Batubinsika D.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.65

Avg xA / game 0.42

Ethiopia Compare

Top Goalscorer Desta B.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Nassir M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.72

Avg xA / game 0.44

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

D.R. Congo 33 / 100

Ethiopia 41 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

D.R. Congo Ethiopia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ethiopia Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

D.R. Congo scored in 84% of their last 32 games.

Historical meetings average 3.25 goals per match.

Ethiopia has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

D.R. Congo has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

D.R. Congo VS Ethiopia

1.5 Goals Scored 1.2

0.38 Goals Conceded 0.2

63% Over 1.5 40%

25% Over 2.5 20%

0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

D.R. Congo

(Home)

01 Jul

England

2 : 1

D.R. Congo

27 Jun

D.R. Congo

3 : 1

Uzbekistan

24 Jun

Colombia

1 : 0

D.R. Congo

17 Jun

Portugal

1 : 1

D.R. Congo

09 Jun

D.R. Congo

1 : 2

Chile

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Ethiopia

(Away)

09 Jun

Ethiopia

1 : 1

Malawi

06 Jun

Ethiopia

1 : 0

Malawi

31 Mar

Ethiopia

1 : 0

Sao Tome and Principe

27 Mar

Sao Tome and Principe

0 : 3

Ethiopia

12 Oct

Burkina Faso

3 : 1

Ethiopia

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