Sport Picks

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Drogheda vs St. Patricks

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division Sullivan & Lambe Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Drogheda play St. Patricks in the Premier Division. It looks like a close match. Recently, Drogheda averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.65 conceded. St. Patricks averaged 1.54 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. In past meetings, Drogheda won 0, St. Patricks won 4, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 12, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Drogheda and 1.56 for St. Patricks. This points to a St. Patricks double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Drogheda
29%
Draws
47%
St. Patricks
Draw rate projection: 29% Favored: St. Patricks

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • Drogheda picked up more points recently compared to St. Patricks.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%
Drogheda Clean Sheet 15%
St. Patricks Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Drogheda St. Patricks
Matches Played 26 28
Wins 6 13
Draws 9 9
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.23 1.54
Goals Conceded 1.65 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 12, 2026 Premier Division
St. Patricks vs Drogheda
2:0
Apr 17, 2026 Premier Division
Drogheda vs St. Patricks
1:3
Mar 13, 2026 Premier Division
St. Patricks vs Drogheda
4:1
Aug 22, 2025 Premier Division
Drogheda vs St. Patricks
0:1
Jun 13, 2025 Premier Division
St. Patricks vs Drogheda
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Drogheda Compare

Top Goalscorer Kavanagh B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

St. Patricks Compare

Top Goalscorer Keena A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Leavy K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Drogheda 25 / 100
St. Patricks 46 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Drogheda St. Patricks

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: St. Patricks or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +50%
6.25
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Drogheda attacking → ← attacking St. Patricks

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Drogheda scored in 81% of their last 26 games.

St. Patricks let in goals in 57% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Drogheda went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

St. Patricks lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 48
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Shamrock Rovers25155540:2250
2Bohemians25127640:2743
3St. Patricks23125638:1941
4Dundalk2398637:3435
5Shelbourne24810635:3534
6Derry City25611832:3129
7Galway United22661029:3724
8Drogheda23571127:4022
9Waterford23481132:4620
10Sligo Rovers23551318:3720