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Dumbarton vs Elgin City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

League Two Dumbarton Football Stadium, Dumbarton
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Murray J.
16'
Doyle M.
43' Event
Cleary R.
Assist: Honeyman S.

AI Match Summary

Dumbarton in this League Two matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Dumbarton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Dumbarton
15%
Draws
36%
Elgin City
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dumbarton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Elgin City have won more games recently than Dumbarton.
  • Win probability leans Dumbarton's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Dumbarton Clean Sheet 10%
Elgin City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dumbarton Elgin City
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 12
Draws 4 6
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.32 2.07
Goals Conceded 2.29 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 League Two
Dumbarton vs Elgin City
2:1
Mar 14, 2026 League Two
Elgin City vs Dumbarton
1:1
Jan 24, 2026 League Two
Dumbarton vs Elgin City
2:2
Nov 15, 2025 League Two
Elgin City vs Dumbarton
2:0
Aug 16, 2025 League Two
Dumbarton vs Elgin City
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dumbarton Compare

Top Goalscorer Cleary R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Omar A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Elgin City Compare

Top Goalscorer MacIver J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dumbarton 38 / 100
Elgin City 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dumbarton Elgin City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dumbarton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dumbarton found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Elgin City has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Dumbarton went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dumbarton VS Elgin City
1.88 Goals Scored 2.38
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Dumbarton

(Home)
03 Oct
Dumbarton
2 : 1
Forfar Athletic
26 Sept
Dumbarton
3 : 2
Banks O' Dee
22 Sept
Dumbarton
3 : 2
Kilmarnock B
19 Sept
Dumbarton
3 : 0
Spartans
12 Sept
Stranraer
3 : 1
Dumbarton
Page 1 of 6

Elgin City

(Away)
03 Oct
Elgin City
6 : 2
Clyde
26 Sept
Peterhead
0 : 1
Elgin City
22 Sept
Elgin City
3 : 0
Dundee FC B
19 Sept
Elgin City
1 : 5
Stranraer
12 Sept
Annan
2 : 0
Elgin City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stranraer 9 5 2 2 17:8 17
2 Clyde 9 5 2 2 21:16 17
3 Elgin City 9 4 2 3 25:16 14
4 Spartans 9 3 3 3 19:17 12
5 Kelty Hearts 9 4 0 5 13:18 12
6 Dumbarton 9 4 0 5 10:15 12
7 Forfar Athletic 9 3 2 4 9:15 11
8 Edinburgh City 9 4 3 2 19:15 10
9 Annan 9 3 0 6 9:11 9
10 Stirling 9 2 2 5 11:22 8
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League One (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two (Relegation - Play Offs)