Sport Picks

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Dumbarton vs Hearts B

Scotland Scotland

Challenge Cup 2025/2026 Dumbarton Football Stadium, Dumbarton
Our Tip

Match Events

70' Event
Honeyman S.

AI Match Summary

Dumbarton in this Challenge Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Dumbarton
15%
Draws
59%
Hearts B
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hearts B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Hearts B have won more games recently than Dumbarton.
  • 59% — that's where the model lands on Hearts B taking it.
  • Hearts B arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Dumbarton, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Dumbarton Clean Sheet 10%
Hearts B Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dumbarton Hearts B
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 8
Draws 6 3
Losses 16 18
Goals Scored 1.14 1.31
Goals Conceded 2.17 2.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 26, 2025 Challenge Cup
Dumbarton vs Hearts B
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dumbarton Compare

Top Goalscorer Honeyman S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Hearts B Compare

Avg xG / game 2.33
Avg xA / game 1.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dumbarton 10 / 100
Hearts B 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dumbarton Hearts B

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hearts B Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hearts B let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

Dumbarton's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Dumbarton stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dumbarton VS Hearts B
1 Goals Scored 2.5
2.63 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Dumbarton

(Home)
12 Sept
Stranraer
3 : 1
Dumbarton
08 Sept
Cove Rangers
6 : 1
Dumbarton
05 Sept
Dumbarton
2 : 1
Elgin City
29 Aug
Annan
2 : 0
Dumbarton
25 Aug
Dumbarton
2 : 2
Celtic B
Page 1 of 6

Hearts B

(Away)
08 Sept
Gala Fairydean Rovers
1 : 6
Hearts B
25 Aug
Spartans
5 : 0
Hearts B
11 Aug
Berwick
3 : 4
Hearts B
18 Apr
Cowdenbeath
3 : 0
Hearts B
10 Apr
Hearts B
3 : 0
Albion Rovers
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inverness 6 6 0 0 26:4 18
2 Stenhousemuir 6 6 0 0 18:2 18
3 Montrose 6 5 1 0 18:9 16
4 East Fife 6 4 1 1 17:9 13
5 Stranraer 6 4 1 1 12:6 13
6 East Kilbride 6 4 0 2 13:11 12
7 Forfar Athletic 6 4 0 2 10:8 12
8 Edinburgh City 6 4 0 2 11:10 12
9 Spartans 6 3 2 1 14:8 11
10 Elgin City 6 3 2 1 11:9 11
11 Dumbarton 6 3 2 1 10:8 11
12 Annan 6 3 1 2 15:10 10
13 Alloa 6 3 1 2 17:14 10
14 Kelty Hearts 6 3 1 2 9:6 10
15 Clyde 6 3 1 2 14:12 10
16 Queen of the South 6 3 1 2 12:10 10
17 Hamilton 6 3 1 2 13:8 9
18 Stirling 6 3 0 3 9:9 9
19 Cove Rangers 6 2 2 2 9:6 8
20 Peterhead 6 2 2 2 10:10 8
21 Celtic B 6 2 0 4 12:15 6
22 Hearts B 6 2 0 4 9:14 6
23 Hibernian B 6 1 2 3 11:14 5
24 St. Mirren B 6 1 1 4 9:15 4
25 Dundee Utd B 6 1 0 5 5:18 3
26 Aberdeen B 6 0 1 5 9:20 1
27 Motherwell B 6 0 1 5 2:17 1
28 Rangers B 6 0 0 6 6:16 0
29 Kilmarnock B 6 0 0 6 3:19 0
30 Dundee FC B 6 0 0 6 4:21 0
Promotion - Challenge Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)