Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dundalk vs Drogheda

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division Oriel Park, Dundalk
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Arubi G.
45'
Kilduff C.
46'
Sub
Burney L. In: Bolger J.
Out: Burney L.

AI Match Summary

Drogheda in this Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Drogheda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Dundalk
35%
Draws
35%
Drogheda
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Dundalk lately — more wins on the board than Drogheda.
  • Win probability leans Dundalk's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Dundalk Clean Sheet 68%
Drogheda Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dundalk Drogheda
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 8
Draws 9 10
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.79 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 10, 2026 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Drogheda
1:2
May 22, 2026 Premier Division
Drogheda vs Dundalk
1:1
Feb 20, 2026 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Drogheda
1:1
Jan 30, 2026 Club Friendly
Drogheda vs Dundalk
0:0
Jan 31, 2025 Club Friendly
Dundalk vs Drogheda
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dundalk Compare

Top Goalscorer Arubi G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Drogheda Compare

Top Goalscorer Farrell S.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dundalk 77 / 100
Drogheda 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dundalk Drogheda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dundalk Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 7:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Dundalk scored in 93% of their last 29 outings.

Drogheda has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Dundalk stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dundalk VS Drogheda
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Dundalk

(Home)
21 Aug
Dundalk
1 : 2
Galway United
15 Aug
Dundalk
8 : 0
Castlebar Celtic
07 Aug
Shamrock Rovers
3 : 2
Dundalk
31 Jul
Dundalk
1 : 1
Sligo Rovers
24 Jul
St. Patricks
1 : 1
Dundalk
Page 1 of 6

Drogheda

(Away)
21 Aug
Drogheda
0 : 2
St. Patricks
15 Aug
College Corinthians
0 : 3
Drogheda
07 Aug
Galway United
0 : 0
Drogheda
31 Jul
Drogheda
0 : 0
Shamrock Rovers
25 Jul
Sligo Rovers
2 : 2
Drogheda
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shamrock Rovers 27 16 6 5 43:24 54
2 St. Patricks 28 14 8 6 45:23 50
3 Bohemians 28 13 8 7 47:34 47
4 Dundalk 28 9 10 9 43:43 37
5 Shelbourne 26 8 10 8 36:38 34
6 Derry City 28 7 12 9 38:37 33
7 Galway United 27 8 9 10 35:41 33
8 Waterford 28 6 11 11 37:48 29
9 Drogheda 28 6 10 12 31:45 28
10 Sligo Rovers 28 5 8 15 23:45 23
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 2027 (Main)