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Dundalk vs St. Patricks - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division Oriel Park, Dundalk
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Keena A.
Assist: Olusanya A.
29'
Olusanya A.
37' Event
Keena A.

AI Match Summary

The Premier Division game between Dundalk and St. Patricks finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward St. Patricks.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Dundalk
15%
Draws
76%
St. Patricks
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: St. Patricks

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and St. Patricks come out ahead of Dundalk on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans St. Patricks's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Dundalk Clean Sheet 14%
St. Patricks Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dundalk St. Patricks
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 16
Draws 7 6
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.84 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.65 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 14, 2026 Premier Division
Dundalk vs St. Patricks
0:4
Jul 24, 2026 Premier Division
St. Patricks vs Dundalk
1:1
Apr 6, 2026 Premier Division
Dundalk vs St. Patricks
2:0
Feb 27, 2026 Premier Division
St. Patricks vs Dundalk
4:0
Sep 5, 2024 Premier Division
Dundalk vs St. Patricks
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dundalk Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

St. Patricks Compare

Top Goalscorer Keena A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sheridan R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dundalk 10 / 100
St. Patricks 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dundalk St. Patricks

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick St. Patricks Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dundalk scored in 94% of their last 31 games.

St. Patricks let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Dundalk has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Dundalk VS St. Patricks
2.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Dundalk

(Home)
02 Oct
Dundalk
1 : 2
Bohemians
18 Sept
Dundalk
2 : 3
Shelbourne
14 Sept
Dundalk
0 : 4
St. Patricks
11 Sept
Waterford
1 : 1
Dundalk
06 Sept
Derry City
4 : 2
Dundalk
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St. Patricks

(Away)
19 Sept
Sligo Rovers
0 : 1
St. Patricks
14 Sept
Dundalk
0 : 4
St. Patricks
11 Sept
St. Patricks
2 : 0
Shamrock Rovers
05 Sept
St. Patricks
1 : 2
Bohemians
28 Aug
St. Patricks
0 : 2
Waterford
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shamrock Rovers 32 18 8 6 52:32 62
2 St. Patricks 32 17 8 7 52:25 59
3 Bohemians 32 17 8 7 57:38 59
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 45:42 41
5 Dundalk 33 10 11 12 50:55 41
6 Shelbourne 32 9 13 10 42:45 40
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 42:48 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 44:54 34
9 Drogheda 33 8 10 15 39:54 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 24:54 23
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 2027 (Main)