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Dunedin vs Napier City

New Zealand New Zealand

Football Championship 2003
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Football Championship 2003 game between Dunedin and Napier City finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Napier City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Dunedin
15%
Draws
51%
Napier City
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Napier City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Dunedin haven't matched Napier City's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Napier City's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Napier City here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Dunedin Clean Sheet 18%
Napier City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dunedin Napier City
Matches Played 30 39
Wins 11 14
Draws 3 4
Losses 16 21
Goals Scored 1.5 2.03
Goals Conceded 2.17 2.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.73 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2003 Football Championship
Dunedin vs Napier City
2:3
Mar 1, 2003 Football Championship
Napier City vs Dunedin
3:0
May 12, 2002 Football Championship
Dunedin vs Napier City
1:6
Mar 23, 2002 Football Championship
Napier City vs Dunedin
1:0
Aug 5, 2001 Football Championship
Napier City vs Dunedin
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dunedin 23 / 100
Napier City 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dunedin Napier City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Napier City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Napier City let in goals in 85% of their last 39 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Dunedin's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Solid form: Dunedin remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Napier City
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 2.25
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Dunedin

(Home)
09 Aug
Dunedin
1 : 2
Mangere United
11 Jul
Dunedin
6 : 1
Mosgiel
27 Jul
Dunedin
0 : 3
Cashmere Technical
28 Jun
Dunedin
1 : 0
Otago University
21 Jul
Miramar
5 : 1
Dunedin
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Napier City

(Away)
16 Aug
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1
Napier City
26 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
2 : 5
Napier City
04 Jul
Petone
0 : 4
Napier City
06 Jul
Napier City
2 : 3
Wellington Olympic
23 Nov
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Napier City
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Miramar 18 11 0 7 46:29 33
2 East Auckland 18 10 3 5 34:24 33
3 Central United 18 10 1 7 44:29 31
4 Napier City 18 9 2 7 29:28 29
5 Manawatu 18 8 3 7 32:29 27
6 Canterbury 18 7 5 6 34:34 26
7 North Shore 18 6 5 7 30:34 23
8 Caversham 18 5 5 8 19:26 20
9 Dunedin 18 6 2 10 24:38 20
10 Tauranga 18 4 2 12 20:41 14
Promotion - Football Championship 2003 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Football Championship 2003 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Football Championship 2003 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Football Championship 2003 (Play Offs)