Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Dunfermline vs Arbroath

Scotland Scotland

Championship 2025/2026 East End Park, Dunfermline
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Kane Ch.
Assist: Tod A.
63'
Flynn R.
66'
Dow R.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Dunfermline advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Dunfermline
20%
Draws
33%
Arbroath
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Dunfermline

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Dunfermline carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Dunfermline a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Dunfermline have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Dunfermline, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Dunfermline Clean Sheet 68%
Arbroath Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dunfermline Arbroath
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 9
Draws 8 9
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.34 0.93
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Championship
Arbroath vs Dunfermline
1:1
May 8, 2026 Championship
Arbroath vs Dunfermline
0:0
May 5, 2026 Championship
Dunfermline vs Arbroath
1:0
May 1, 2026 Championship
Dunfermline vs Arbroath
0:0
Feb 21, 2026 Championship
Arbroath vs Dunfermline
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dunfermline Compare

Top Goalscorer Kane Ch.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Arbroath Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dunfermline 77 / 100
Arbroath 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dunfermline Arbroath

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dunfermline Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Dunfermline scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Arbroath conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Recent resilience: Dunfermline stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Dunfermline VS Arbroath
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Dunfermline

(Home)
19 Sept
Morton
0 : 1
Dunfermline
12 Sept
Dunfermline
2 : 0
Queen's Park
05 Sept
Arbroath
1 : 1
Dunfermline
28 Aug
Dunfermline
1 : 0
Raith
22 Aug
Livingston
2 : 0
Dunfermline
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Arbroath

(Away)
25 Sept
Arbroath
2 : 1
Queen's Park
19 Sept
Stenhousemuir
1 : 0
Arbroath
12 Sept
Raith
4 : 0
Arbroath
05 Sept
Arbroath
1 : 1
Dunfermline
29 Aug
Arbroath
1 : 0
Livingston
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
St. Mirren -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Partick -
TBD -
Arbroath 0
Dunfermline 1
Semi-finals
St. Mirren -
TBD -
Partick 3
Dunfermline 2
Final
St. Mirren 2
Partick 1