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Dunfermline vs Arbroath - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

Championship East End Park, Dunfermline
Sat, Nov 14, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Dunfermline host Arbroath in the Championship. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Dunfermline at 1.29 goals for, 0.94 against; Arbroath at 0.96 for, 1.39 against. Head-to-head, Dunfermline have won 1 to Arbroath's 1, with 3 draws. They last met on Sep 5, 2026, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.38 vs 0.76, favoring Dunfermline. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Dunfermline
30%
Draws
23%
Arbroath
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Dunfermline

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Arbroath haven't matched Dunfermline's recent run of results.
  • Dunfermline are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Dunfermline Clean Sheet 20%
Arbroath Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dunfermline Arbroath
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 13 9
Draws 9 5
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.29 0.96
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Championship
Arbroath vs Dunfermline
1:1
May 8, 2026 Championship
Arbroath vs Dunfermline
0:0
May 5, 2026 Championship
Dunfermline vs Arbroath
1:0
May 1, 2026 Championship
Dunfermline vs Arbroath
0:0
Feb 21, 2026 Championship
Arbroath vs Dunfermline
4:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dunfermline 67 / 100
Arbroath 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dunfermline Arbroath

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dunfermline Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dunfermline scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Arbroath's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Dunfermline remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Dunfermline VS Arbroath
1 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Dunfermline

(Home)
20 Oct
Dunfermline
1 : 1
Partick
17 Oct
Dunfermline
0 : 0
Livingston
10 Oct
Ayr
1 : 1
Dunfermline
03 Oct
Dunfermline
1 : 4
Aberdeen
19 Sept
Morton
0 : 1
Dunfermline
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Arbroath

(Away)
17 Oct
Inverness
2 : 0
Arbroath
10 Oct
Arbroath
1 : 2
Morton
03 Oct
Partick
3 : 0
Arbroath
25 Sept
Arbroath
2 : 1
Queen's Park
19 Sept
Stenhousemuir
1 : 0
Arbroath
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stenhousemuir 10 7 2 1 13:5 23
2 Partick 11 6 4 1 12:4 22
3 Raith 11 6 3 2 16:7 21
4 Inverness 11 4 4 3 14:11 16
5 Dunfermline 10 3 6 1 8:6 15
6 Livingston 11 4 2 5 14:11 14
7 Ayr 11 3 3 5 10:12 12
8 Arbroath 11 3 2 6 7:17 11
9 Morton 11 2 1 8 9:18 7
10 Queen's Park 11 2 1 8 6:18 7
Promotion - Premiership 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)