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Dunfermline vs Ayr - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

Championship East End Park, Dunfermline
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Tod A.
Assist: Kearney S.
45' Event
McBeth L.
Assist: Taylor R.
58'
Sub
Mitchell K. In: Murphy J.
Out: Mitchell K.

AI Match Summary

The Championship game between Dunfermline and Ayr finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Dunfermline
15%
Draws
32%
Ayr
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dunfermline

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Dunfermline carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Dunfermline's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Dunfermline Clean Sheet 68%
Ayr Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dunfermline Ayr
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 12
Draws 7 5
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.27 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Championship
Dunfermline vs Ayr
1:1
Apr 7, 2026 Championship
Ayr vs Dunfermline
0:3
Dec 20, 2025 Championship
Dunfermline vs Ayr
2:3
Oct 31, 2025 Championship
Ayr vs Dunfermline
0:1
Sep 23, 2025 Championship
Dunfermline vs Ayr
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dunfermline Compare

Top Goalscorer Tod A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Ayr Compare

Top Goalscorer McBeth L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dunfermline 50 / 100
Ayr 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dunfermline Ayr

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dunfermline Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dunfermline's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Ayr let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Dunfermline has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Dunfermline VS Ayr
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Dunfermline

(Home)
03 Oct
Dunfermline
1 : 4
Aberdeen
19 Sept
Morton
0 : 1
Dunfermline
12 Sept
Dunfermline
2 : 0
Queen's Park
05 Sept
Arbroath
1 : 1
Dunfermline
28 Aug
Dunfermline
1 : 0
Raith
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Ayr

(Away)
03 Oct
Livingston
1 : 2
Ayr
25 Sept
Ayr
0 : 1
Stenhousemuir
18 Sept
Queen's Park
0 : 2
Ayr
12 Sept
Ayr
1 : 3
Inverness
05 Sept
Partick
1 : 0
Ayr
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stenhousemuir 8 7 1 0 12:2 22
2 Raith 9 5 2 2 13:6 17
3 Partick 8 4 3 1 8:2 15
4 Livingston 9 4 1 4 13:9 13
5 Dunfermline 7 3 3 1 6:4 12
6 Ayr 9 3 2 4 9:10 11
7 Arbroath 9 3 2 4 6:13 11
8 Inverness 8 2 4 2 9:9 10
9 Queen's Park 8 1 1 6 4:13 4
10 Morton 9 0 1 8 5:17 1
Promotion - Premiership 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Promotion - Premiership (Relegation)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)