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Dunfermline vs Morton

Scotland Scotland

Championship 2025/2026 East End Park, Dunfermline
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Blues C.
45'
Moore K.
48' Event
Tod A.
Assist: Todd M.

AI Match Summary

Dunfermline in this Championship 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Dunfermline.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Dunfermline
20%
Draws
0%
Morton
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Dunfermline

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Morton haven't matched Dunfermline's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Dunfermline's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Dunfermline Clean Sheet 68%
Morton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dunfermline Morton
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 14 4
Draws 8 6
Losses 8 18
Goals Scored 1.53 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Championship
Dunfermline vs Morton
3:1
Feb 17, 2026 Championship
Morton vs Dunfermline
2:0
Nov 22, 2025 Championship
Dunfermline vs Morton
1:0
Aug 2, 2025 Championship
Morton vs Dunfermline
0:0
May 2, 2025 Championship
Morton vs Dunfermline
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Dunfermline Compare

Top Goalscorer Tod A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ngwenya K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Morton Compare

Top Goalscorer Blues C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dunfermline 95 / 100
Morton 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dunfermline Morton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dunfermline Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Morton has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Difficult form: Morton registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Dunfermline's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Dunfermline VS Morton
1.88 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Dunfermline

(Home)
15 Aug
Dunfermline
1 : 2
Ross County
08 Aug
Dunfermline
1 : 1
Ayr
01 Aug
Inverness
0 : 0
Dunfermline
26 Jul
St. Mirren
0 : 1
Dunfermline
21 Jul
Dunfermline
5 : 0
Cove Rangers
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Morton

(Away)
08 Aug
Stenhousemuir
2 : 0
Morton
01 Aug
Morton
0 : 1
Partick
25 Jul
Morton
0 : 1
Inverness
18 Jul
St Johnstone
3 : 0
Morton
14 Jul
East Fife
2 : 0
Morton
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 St Johnstone 36 22 11 3 67:25 77
2 Partick 36 17 15 4 53:36 66
3 Arbroath 36 13 13 10 43:41 52
4 Dunfermline 36 14 9 13 52:41 51
5 Raith 36 12 9 15 43:42 45
6 Queen's Park 36 9 14 13 35:48 41
7 Ayr 36 8 15 13 38:47 39
8 Morton 36 8 14 14 36:52 38
9 Airdrieonians 36 8 12 16 35:49 36
10 Ross County 36 8 10 18 36:57 34
Promotion - Premiership (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Promotion)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Promotion)
Relegation - Championship 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - League One (Main)