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Duque de Caxias vs Bonsucesso - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

74' Event
Oliveira R.

AI Match Summary

Duque de Caxias in this Carioca B1 2025 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Duque de Caxias
20%
Draws
38%
Bonsucesso
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Duque de Caxias

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bonsucesso lately — more wins on the board than Duque de Caxias.
  • Win probability leans Duque de Caxias's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Bonsucesso arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Duque de Caxias, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Duque de Caxias Clean Sheet 68%
Bonsucesso Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Duque de Caxias Bonsucesso
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 12
Draws 6 9
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 0.86 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.07 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 22, 2025 Carioca B1
Bonsucesso vs Duque de Caxias
2:0
Nov 15, 2025 Carioca B1
Duque de Caxias vs Bonsucesso
1:0
Sep 27, 2025 Carioca B1
Bonsucesso vs Duque de Caxias
2:0
Nov 11, 2020 Carioca 2
Duque de Caxias vs Bonsucesso
5:0
Jan 30, 2014 Carioca
Duque de Caxias vs Bonsucesso
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Duque de Caxias Compare

Top Goalscorer Oliveira R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Bonsucesso Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Duque de Caxias 77 / 100
Bonsucesso 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Duque de Caxias Bonsucesso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Duque de Caxias Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bonsucesso's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Duque de Caxias stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Duque de Caxias scored in 55% of their last 29 games.

Scoring Trends

Duque de Caxias VS Bonsucesso
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Duque de Caxias

(Home)
03 Oct
Goytacaz
2 : 1
Duque de Caxias
26 Sept
Duque de Caxias
0 : 2
Niteroiense
19 Sept
Sao Cristovao
0 : 1
Duque de Caxias
11 Sept
AA Carapebus
1 : 4
Duque de Caxias
05 Sept
Duque de Caxias
3 : 0
Nova Cidade
Page 1 of 6

Bonsucesso

(Away)
22 Jul
Madureira
2 : 1
Bonsucesso
15 Jul
Bonsucesso
2 : 2
Madureira
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1
Bonsucesso
01 Jul
Bonsucesso
3 : 2
America RJ
23 Jun
Cabofriense
0 : 0
Bonsucesso
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Bonsucesso 2
Duque de Caxias 1
Sao Cristovao 0
Serrano FC 2
Final
Bonsucesso 1
Serrano FC 2