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Dynamo Moscow vs Krasnodar

Russia Russia

Russian Cup VTB Arena, Moscow
Wed, Aug 19, 2026
VS
05:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 1-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. This one's hard to separate. Krasnodar have shipped 1 goals a game lately, while Dynamo Moscow have conceded 1 and scored 2.04. Head-to-head, Dynamo Moscow have won 2 to Krasnodar's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on May 11, 2026, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.81 vs 1.13, favoring Dynamo Moscow. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Dynamo Moscow
20%
Draws
45%
Krasnodar
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Krasnodar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Krasnodar lately — more wins on the board than Dynamo Moscow.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Krasnodar arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Dynamo Moscow, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Dynamo Moscow Clean Sheet 20%
Krasnodar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Dynamo Moscow Krasnodar
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 16 17
Draws 5 5
Losses 6 6
Goals Scored 2.04 2.04
Goals Conceded 1 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2026 Premier League
Dynamo Moscow vs Krasnodar
2:1
May 7, 2026 Russian Cup
Krasnodar vs Dynamo Moscow
1:0
Apr 8, 2026 Russian Cup
Dynamo Moscow vs Krasnodar
0:0
Feb 10, 2026 Club Friendly
Dynamo Moscow vs Krasnodar
1:0
Sep 30, 2025 Russian Cup
Krasnodar vs Dynamo Moscow
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Dynamo Moscow 36 / 100
Krasnodar 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Dynamo Moscow Krasnodar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Krasnodar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dynamo Moscow scored in 78% of their last 27 games.

Krasnodar let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Dynamo Moscow went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Dynamo Moscow VS Krasnodar
2.5 Goals Scored 1.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Dynamo Moscow

(Home)
09 Aug
Dynamo Moscow
3 : 1
Dynamo Makhachkala
05 Aug
Fakel Voronezh
0 : 1
Dynamo Moscow
01 Aug
Baltika
2 : 1
Dynamo Moscow
25 Jul
Dynamo Moscow
0 : 0
Krylya Sovetov Samara
18 Jul
Dynamo Moscow
5 : 2
CSKA Moscow
Page 1 of 6

Krasnodar

(Away)
09 Aug
Spartak Moscow
1 : 2
Krasnodar
05 Aug
Krasnodar
2 : 1
Akhmat Grozny
02 Aug
Krasnodar
3 : 2
Fakel Voronezh
26 Jul
Rubin Kazan
1 : 3
Krasnodar
19 Jul
Krasnodar
1 : 1
Baltika
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rodina Moscow 1 1 0 0 5:0 3
2 Spartak Moscow 1 1 0 0 5:1 3
3 Orenburg 1 0 0 1 1:5 0
4 Rubin Kazan 1 0 0 1 0:5 0
Promotion - Russian Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup (Regions Path - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dynamo Moscow 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
2 Krasnodar 1 1 0 0 1:1 2
3 Akhmat Grozny 1 0 0 1 1:1 1
4 Fakel Voronezh 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
Promotion - Russian Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup (Regions Path - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zenit St Petersburg 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
2 Krylya Sovetov Samara 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
3 Baltika 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
4 Dynamo Makhachkala 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
Promotion - Russian Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup (Regions Path - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Rostov 1 1 0 0 4:0 3
2 CSKA Moscow 1 1 0 0 1:1 2
3 Lokomotiv Moscow 1 0 0 1 1:1 1
4 Akron Togliatti 1 0 0 1 0:4 0
Promotion - Russian Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - Russian Cup (Regions Path - Play Offs)