Sport Picks

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East Fife vs Dumbarton

Scotland Scotland

Challenge Cup MGM Timber Bayview Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

East Fife play Dumbarton in the Challenge Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, East Fife averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. Dumbarton averaged 1.03 goals scored and 2.07 conceded. In past meetings, East Fife won 2, Dumbarton won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 6, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for East Fife and 1.13 for Dumbarton. This points to a East Fife double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
East Fife
21%
Draws
38%
Dumbarton
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: East Fife

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • East Fife picked up more points recently compared to Dumbarton.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 50%
Over 3.5 Goals 30%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
East Fife Clean Sheet 21%
Dumbarton Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric East Fife Dumbarton
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 6 6
Draws 6 7
Losses 17 17
Goals Scored 0.83 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.83 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2025 Challenge Cup
East Fife vs Dumbarton
1:1
Mar 9, 2024 League Two
East Fife vs Dumbarton
3:2
Jan 6, 2024 League Two
Dumbarton vs East Fife
1:2
Nov 11, 2023 League Two
East Fife vs Dumbarton
0:1
Sep 2, 2023 League Two
Dumbarton vs East Fife
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

East Fife Compare

Top Goalscorer Austin N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Dumbarton Compare

Top Goalscorer Honeyman S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

East Fife 41 / 100
Dumbarton 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
East Fife Dumbarton

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: East Fife or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.5%
2.27
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

East Fife attacking → ← attacking Dumbarton

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

East Fife scored in 52% of their last 29 games.

Dumbarton let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

East Fife went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Dumbarton lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

24 Points in last 5 25
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Inverness660026:418
2Stenhousemuir660018:218
3Montrose651018:916
4East Fife641117:913
5Stranraer641112:613
6East Kilbride640213:1112
7Forfar Athletic640210:812
8Edinburgh City640211:1012
9Spartans632114:811
10Elgin City632111:911
11Dumbarton632110:811
12Annan631215:1010
13Alloa631217:1410
14Kelty Hearts63129:610
15Clyde631214:1210
16Queen of the South631212:1010
17Hamilton631213:89
18Stirling63039:99
19Cove Rangers62229:68
20Peterhead622210:108
21Celtic B620412:156
22Hearts B62049:146
23Hibernian B612311:145
24St. Mirren B61149:154
25Dundee Utd B61055:183
26Aberdeen B60159:201
27Motherwell B60152:171
28Rangers B60066:160
29Kilmarnock B60063:190
30Dundee FC B60064:210