Sport Picks
Eastern Suburbs vs Napier City
New Zealand
National League 2024 
Match Events
33'
33'
Mechell J.
36'
36'
Hewson A.
50'
50'
Mechell J.
AI Match Summary
The National League 2024 game between Eastern Suburbs and Napier City finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Napier City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Napier City haven't matched Eastern Suburbs's recent run of results.
- 51% — that's where the model lands on Napier City taking it.
- Regular National League 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Eastern Suburbs here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Eastern Suburbs Clean Sheet 11%
Napier City Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Eastern Suburbs | Napier City |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 10 |
| Draws | 5 | 4 |
| Losses | 12 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.67 | 1.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.33 | 2.33 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 6, 2024 National League
Eastern Suburbs vs Napier City
2:2
Nov 10, 2023 National League
Napier City vs Eastern Suburbs
0:5
Sep 20, 2015 Chatham Cup
Eastern Suburbs vs Napier City
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Eastern Suburbs Compare
Top Goalscorer Mechell J.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Napier City Compare
Top Goalscorer Hewson A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Chretien M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Eastern Suburbs 27 / 100
Napier City 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Eastern Suburbs Napier City
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Napier City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Eastern Suburbs scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.
Napier City let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.
Eastern Suburbs went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Eastern Suburbs VS Napier City
1 Goals Scored 2.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Eastern Suburbs
(Home) 16 Aug
Eastern Suburbs
1 : 2 Wellington Olympic
26 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
0 : 2 Eastern Suburbs
05 Jul
Manukau United
1 : 3 Eastern Suburbs
24 Nov
Eastern Suburbs
0 : 2 Western Suburbs
16 Nov
Cashmere Technical
1 : 0 Eastern Suburbs
Page 1 of 6
16 Aug
Eastern Suburbs
1 : 2 Wellington Olympic
24 Nov
Eastern Suburbs
0 : 2 Western Suburbs
10 Nov
Eastern Suburbs
2 : 2 Birkenhead
27 Oct
Eastern Suburbs
0 : 3 Auckland City
20 Oct
Eastern Suburbs
0 : 1 Western Springs
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Napier City
(Away) 16 Aug
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1 Napier City
26 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
2 : 5 Napier City
04 Jul
Petone
0 : 4 Napier City
06 Jul
Napier City
2 : 3 Wellington Olympic
23 Nov
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3 Napier City
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16 Aug
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1 Napier City
26 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
2 : 5 Napier City
04 Jul
Petone
0 : 4 Napier City
23 Nov
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3 Napier City
10 Nov
Coastal Spirit
1 : 3 Napier City
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23:16 | 20 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20:10 | 19 |
| 3 | Western Springs | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 25:16 | 18 |
| 4 | Napier City | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 21:14 | 17 |
| 5 | Wellington Phoenix 2 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16:19 | 13 |
| 6 | Wellington Olympic | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 17:15 | 11 |
| 7 | Coastal Spirit | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18:20 | 11 |
| 8 | Cashmere Technical | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16:18 | 9 |
| 9 | Eastern Suburbs | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8:17 | 5 |
| 10 | Western Suburbs | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 9:28 | 4 |
Promotion - National League 2024 (Grand Final)
