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EC Juventude vs Tombense

Brazil Brazil

Copa Sul-Sudeste Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Caxias do Sul
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Luiz Felipe
45' Event
Ray Breno
(Penalty)
45'
Junior C.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with EC Juventude advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
EC Juventude
28%
Draws
22%
Tombense
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: EC Juventude

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • EC Juventude carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on EC Juventude taking it.
  • EC Juventude have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor EC Juventude, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 60%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
EC Juventude Clean Sheet 68%
Tombense Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric EC Juventude Tombense
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 9
Draws 6 11
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.5 1.29
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.29
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.86

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2026 Copa Sul-Sudeste
EC Juventude vs Tombense
2:1
Oct 7, 2023 Serie B
Tombense vs EC Juventude
1:1
Jun 11, 2023 Serie B
EC Juventude vs Tombense
1:2
Aug 8, 2019 Serie C
EC Juventude vs Tombense
2:0
Jun 8, 2019 Serie C
Tombense vs EC Juventude
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

EC Juventude Compare

Top Goalscorer Costa K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Tombense Compare

Top Goalscorer Luiz Felipe
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.17
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

EC Juventude 59 / 100
Tombense 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
EC Juventude Tombense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick JUV Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

EC Juventude went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

EC Juventude's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Tombense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

EC Juventude VS Tombense
1.5 Goals Scored 1.29
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.86
63% Over 1.5 57%
50% Over 2.5 43%
13% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

EC Juventude

(Home)
17 Jul
EC Juventude
2 : 0
Cuiaba
10 Jul
EC Juventude
1 : 0
Vila Nova FC
05 Jul
Nautico
0 : 0
EC Juventude
28 Jun
EC Juventude
2 : 0
Ceara
21 Jun
Sao Bernardo
0 : 1
EC Juventude
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Tombense

(Away)
27 Jun
Tombense
0 : 0
CRAC
21 Jun
CRAC
1 : 0
Tombense
14 Jun
Tombense
0 : 0
Vitoria ES
30 May
Porto-BA
1 : 3
Tombense
23 May
Tombense
1 : 1
Real Noroeste
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Chapecoense-SC64118:513
2Novorizontino63218:511
3SER Caxias do Sul63216:311
4Cianorte62229:108
5Tombense612311:135
6Sampaio Correa FE61237:95
Promotion - Copa Sul-Sudeste (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Avai631210:810
2Volta Redonda63129:810
3Operario-PR62315:49
4America MG622211:118
5EC Juventude61144:94
6Sao Bernardo60336:93
Promotion - Copa Sul-Sudeste (Play Offs)