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EI San Martin vs Covadonga - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Madrigal S.
90' Event
Germanier B.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 game between EI San Martin and Covadonga finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Covadonga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
EI San Martin
30%
Draws
51%
Covadonga
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Covadonga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • EI San Martin haven't matched Covadonga's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Covadonga's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
EI San Martin Clean Sheet 20%
Covadonga Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric EI San Martin Covadonga
Matches Played 30 37
Wins 11 24
Draws 9 5
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 0.9 2.46
Goals Conceded 1.03 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
EI San Martin vs Covadonga
0:2
Sep 28, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs EI San Martin
3:1
May 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
Covadonga vs EI San Martin
1:1
Dec 22, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
EI San Martin vs Covadonga
1:0
Mar 6, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 2
EI San Martin vs Covadonga
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

EI San Martin Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Covadonga Compare

Top Goalscorer Madrigal S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Germanier B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

EI San Martin 10 / 100
Covadonga 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
EI San Martin Covadonga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Covadonga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

EI San Martin has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

EI San Martin scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Covadonga has conceded goals in 51% of their last 37 outings.

Scoring Trends

EI San Martin VS Covadonga
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

EI San Martin

(Home)
03 Oct
Union Club Ceares
1 : 2
EI San Martin
27 Sept
EI San Martin
2 : 2
Astur
20 Sept
Andes CF
1 : 1
EI San Martin
13 Sept
EI San Martin
0 : 4
Condal
06 Sept
Gijon Industrial
2 : 0
EI San Martin
Page 1 of 6

Covadonga

(Away)
04 Oct
Covadonga
2 : 1
Club Siero
26 Sept
CD Colunga
1 : 2
Covadonga
20 Sept
Covadonga
4 : 0
Caudal Deportivo
13 Sept
Langreo
2 : 2
Covadonga
06 Sept
Covadonga
4 : 0
Aviles Stadium
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Llanera 34 29 4 1 71:18 91
2 Covadonga 34 25 5 4 88:24 80
3 Gijon B 34 19 10 5 79:29 67
4 Caudal Deportivo 34 20 6 8 59:39 66
5 CD Mosconia 34 16 7 11 46:29 55
6 EI San Martin 34 14 9 11 36:36 51
7 L Entregu CF 34 13 10 11 41:42 49
8 Union Club Ceares 34 12 9 13 39:40 45
9 Praviano 34 11 9 14 36:42 42
10 Club Siero 34 11 8 15 39:49 41
11 CD Colunga 34 10 9 15 38:59 39
12 Llanes 34 8 13 13 44:51 37
13 Aviles Stadium 34 6 15 13 21:40 33
14 Gijon Industrial 34 7 11 16 36:57 32
15 Lenense 34 7 11 16 36:58 32
16 Navarro 34 6 13 15 38:53 31
17 Tuilla 34 7 6 21 31:60 27
18 Real Titanico 34 3 9 22 22:74 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Offs)