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Eibar C vs UD Aretxabaleta

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, Eibar
Eibar C Logo

Eibar C

4 - 2
FT
UD Aretxabaleta Logo

UD Aretxabaleta

Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Aizpurua J.
19' Event
Fuente M.
45' Event
Sanchez Gonzalo E.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between Eibar C and UD Aretxabaleta finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Eibar C.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Eibar C
35%
Draws
32%
UD Aretxabaleta
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • UD Aretxabaleta carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Eibar C's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Eibar C Clean Sheet 18%
UD Aretxabaleta Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Eibar C UD Aretxabaleta
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 10
Draws 10 5
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.47 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Eibar C vs UD Aretxabaleta
4:2
Sep 27, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
UD Aretxabaleta vs Eibar C
4:0
May 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
UD Aretxabaleta vs Eibar C
0:1
Dec 22, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Eibar C vs UD Aretxabaleta
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Eibar C Compare

Top Goalscorer Sanchez Gonzalo E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Fuente M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

UD Aretxabaleta Compare

Top Goalscorer Aizpurua J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lasagabaster I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Eibar C 41 / 100
UD Aretxabaleta 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Eibar C UD Aretxabaleta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Eibar C scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: UD Aretxabaleta conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.75 goals when they meet.

Eibar C went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Eibar C VS UD Aretxabaleta
2.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Eibar C

(Home)
26 Sept
Leioa
2 : 1
Eibar C
19 Sept
Eibar C
3 : 1
SD Erandio
13 Sept
Sodupe
1 : 1
Eibar C
05 Sept
Eibar C
1 : 1
Alaves C
14 Aug
Eibar C
3 : 1
Santurtzi
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UD Aretxabaleta

(Away)
26 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
1 : 2
Derio
19 Sept
SCD Durango
0 : 0
UD Aretxabaleta
13 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
0 : 0
Beasain
05 Sept
Touring KE
0 : 1
UD Aretxabaleta
22 Aug
UD Aretxabaleta
3 : 0
Mirandes B
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)