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El Espinar Sant Rafel vs Murense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2021/2022
El Espinar Sant Rafel Logo

El Espinar Sant Rafel

1 - 1
FT
Murense Logo

Murense

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Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2021/2022 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
El Espinar Sant Rafel
35%
Draws
32%
Murense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • El Espinar Sant Rafel have won more games recently than Murense.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
El Espinar Sant Rafel Clean Sheet 20%
Murense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric El Espinar Sant Rafel Murense
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 6 2
Draws 6 5
Losses 17 23
Goals Scored 0.97 0.7
Goals Conceded 1.76 2.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
El Espinar Sant Rafel vs Murense
1:1
Feb 9, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Murense vs El Espinar Sant Rafel
1:1
Apr 18, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
El Espinar Sant Rafel vs Murense
1:1
Nov 25, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Murense vs El Espinar Sant Rafel
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

El Espinar Sant Rafel 31 / 100
Murense 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
El Espinar Sant Rafel Murense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick El Espinar Sant Rafel Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Murense has conceded goals in 93% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.75 goals per match.

Away concern: Murense has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

El Espinar Sant Rafel found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

El Espinar Sant Rafel VS Murense
1.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

El Espinar Sant Rafel

(Home)
27 Sept
El Espinar Sant Rafel
1 : 5
Prat
01 May
El Espinar Sant Rafel
1 : 1
Murense
24 Apr
Platges de Calvia
5 : 0
El Espinar Sant Rafel
14 Apr
El Espinar Sant Rafel
2 : 3
Rotlet Molinar
10 Apr
PE Sant Jordi
2 : 2
El Espinar Sant Rafel
Page 1 of 6

Murense

(Away)
01 May
El Espinar Sant Rafel
1 : 1
Murense
23 Apr
Murense
0 : 0
Rotlet Molinar
17 Apr
PE Sant Jordi
3 : 1
Murense
14 Apr
Murense
0 : 4
Soller
08 Apr
UD Poblense
4 : 0
Murense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mallorca B 40 32 5 3 105:27 101
2 Manacor 40 26 4 10 74:42 82
3 UD Poblense 40 24 8 8 89:24 80
4 Platges de Calvia 40 22 11 7 56:27 77
5 Llosetense 40 22 9 9 62:36 75
6 Santanyi 40 23 6 11 66:46 75
7 Constancia 40 20 9 11 54:38 69
8 PE Sant Jordi 40 20 8 12 57:46 68
9 Portmany 40 17 11 12 55:51 62
10 Collerense 40 17 7 16 45:49 58
11 Soller 40 16 9 15 46:52 57
12 Binissalem 40 13 12 15 40:44 51
13 Mercadal 40 11 12 17 54:51 45
14 Inter Ibiza 40 12 7 21 51:62 43
15 Rotlet Molinar 40 11 9 20 35:53 42
16 El Espinar Sant Rafel 40 10 10 20 48:64 40
17 Campos 40 10 10 20 38:64 40
18 Felanitx 40 9 11 20 43:65 38
19 Serverense 40 8 7 25 35:74 31
20 Murense 40 5 8 27 31:76 23
21 Son Veri 40 4 3 33 28:121 15
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2021/2022 (Play Offs)