Sport Picks

Stadium Background

EL Nacional vs U. Catolica

Ecuador Ecuador

Copa Ecuador Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa, Quito
EL Nacional Logo

EL Nacional

1 - 4
FT
U. Catolica Logo

U. Catolica

Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Palacios B.
(Penalty)
41' Event
Borja J.
(Penalty)
68' Event
Martinez F.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-4. The second leg ended 1-4.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
EL Nacional
15%
Draws
65%
U. Catolica
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: U. Catolica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and U. Catolica come out ahead of EL Nacional on wins alone.
  • U. Catolica are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • U. Catolica arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor U. Catolica, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and U. Catolica have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
EL Nacional Clean Sheet 10%
U. Catolica Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric EL Nacional U. Catolica
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 4 15
Draws 6 6
Losses 19 9
Goals Scored 0.83 1.8
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 28, 2026 Copa Ecuador
EL Nacional vs U. Catolica
1:4
Jun 21, 2025 Liga Pro
EL Nacional vs U. Catolica
0:3
Feb 23, 2025 Liga Pro
U. Catolica vs EL Nacional
1:1
Aug 4, 2024 Liga Pro
EL Nacional vs U. Catolica
0:2
Mar 3, 2024 Liga Pro
U. Catolica vs EL Nacional
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

EL Nacional Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

U. Catolica Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Moreno L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

EL Nacional 14 / 100
U. Catolica 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
EL Nacional U. Catolica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick U. Catolica Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

U. Catolica's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

EL Nacional found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (29 games).

EL Nacional has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

EL Nacional VS U. Catolica
0.63 Goals Scored 2.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

EL Nacional

(Home)
26 Sept
EL Nacional
0 : 3
Cumbaya
18 Sept
Dep. Santo Domingo
1 : 0
EL Nacional
12 Sept
EL Nacional
3 : 0
22 de Julio
05 Sept
EL Nacional
0 : 2
LDU Portoviejo
29 Aug
Gualaceo
3 : 0
EL Nacional
Page 1 of 6

U. Catolica

(Away)
20 Sept
LDU Quito
2 : 1
U. Catolica
15 Sept
U. Catolica
2 : 1
Orense
10 Sept
Astillero
0 : 1
U. Catolica
06 Sept
Delfin
0 : 1
U. Catolica
03 Sept
U. Catolica
1 : 1
Aucas
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
LDU Quito -
TBD -
Africando 1
Independiente Juniors 2
Leones del Norte -
TBD -
Huaquillas FC 1
Rio Aguarico 0
Aucas -
TBD -
Guaranda 0
San Antonio 1
Dep. Cuenca -
TBD -
La Union 1
Cumbaya 0
Emelec -
TBD -
U.D. Juvenil 0
Daquilema 2
Guayaquil City -
TBD -
Astillero 2
22 de Julio 1
U. Catolica -
TBD -
Dunamis 1
EL Nacional 5
Orense -
TBD -
Domingo TSA 1
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle -
TBD -
Primero de Mayo 0
Dep. Santo Domingo 2
Manta -
TBD -
Nazareno 0
Nueve de Octubre 4
Mushuc Runa -
TBD -
Dep. Quito 0
Gualaceo 1
Macara -
TBD -
Quito 2
CD Cuenca Juniors 3
Barcelona SC -
TBD -
Insutec 4
Club Deportivo Ibarra 3
Libertad -
TBD -
Ind. Azogues 0
LDU Portoviejo 5
Delfin -
TBD -
Banos 2
Anaconda 1
Tecnico U. -
TBD -
Juventud Italiana 2
Atletico FC 1
1/16-finals
LDU Quito 2
Independiente Juniors 1
Leones del Norte 1
Huaquillas FC 0
Aucas 3
San Antonio 0
Dep. Cuenca 0
La Union 1
Emelec 0
Daquilema 1
Guayaquil City 1
Astillero 2
U. Catolica 4
EL Nacional 1
Orense 1
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle 2
Dep. Santo Domingo 0
Manta 1
Nueve de Octubre 0
Mushuc Runa 0
Gualaceo 1
Macara 1
CD Cuenca Juniors 0
Barcelona SC 4
Insutec 2
Libertad 1
LDU Portoviejo 2
Delfin 2
Banos 0
Tecnico U. 0
Juventud Italiana 2
1/8-finals
LDU Quito 6
Leones del Norte 0
Aucas 2
La Union 1
Daquilema 0
Astillero 2
U. Catolica 3
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle 1
Manta 0
Gualaceo 2
Macara 1
Barcelona SC 0
LDU Portoviejo 3
Delfin 1
Juventud Italiana 0
Quarter-finals
LDU Quito 1
Aucas 0
Astillero 0
U. Catolica 1
Independiente del Valle 2
Gualaceo 0
LDU Portoviejo 0
Delfin 2
Semi-finals
LDU Quito -
U. Catolica -
Independiente del Valle -
Delfin -
Final
TBD -
TBD -