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Elgin City vs Kelty Hearts - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

League Two Borough Briggs, Elgin
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Ferguson A.
29' Event
Hester K.
Assist: Dingwall R.
34'
Murray J.

AI Match Summary

The League Two game between Elgin City and Kelty Hearts finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Elgin City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Elgin City
15%
Draws
28%
Kelty Hearts
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Elgin City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Kelty Hearts haven't matched Elgin City's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Elgin City a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Elgin City Clean Sheet 13%
Kelty Hearts Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Elgin City Kelty Hearts
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 11
Draws 5 1
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 2.03 1.46
Goals Conceded 1.52 2.04
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 League Two
Elgin City vs Kelty Hearts
4:1
Nov 30, 2024 Scottish Cup
Elgin City vs Kelty Hearts
3:2
Sep 7, 2024 Challenge Cup
Kelty Hearts vs Elgin City
3:1
Jul 16, 2024 League Cup
Elgin City vs Kelty Hearts
2:1
Mar 19, 2022 League Two
Elgin City vs Kelty Hearts
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Elgin City Compare

Top Goalscorer Hester K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mackay L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.16

Kelty Hearts Compare

Top Goalscorer Cole R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Elgin City 84 / 100
Kelty Hearts 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Elgin City Kelty Hearts

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Elgin City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Kelty Hearts conceded in 89% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Elgin City scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Solid form: Elgin City remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Elgin City VS Kelty Hearts
2.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Elgin City

(Home)
13 Oct
Elgin City
0 : 1
Aberdeen B
10 Oct
Forfar Athletic
1 : 2
Elgin City
03 Oct
Elgin City
6 : 2
Clyde
26 Sept
Peterhead
0 : 1
Elgin City
22 Sept
Elgin City
3 : 0
Dundee FC B
Page 1 of 6

Kelty Hearts

(Away)
13 Oct
East Kilbride
2 : 1
Kelty Hearts
10 Oct
Stirling
2 : 1
Kelty Hearts
03 Oct
Spartans
0 : 2
Kelty Hearts
26 Sept
Kelty Hearts
2 : 1
Montrose
22 Sept
Kelty Hearts
3 : 5
Hearts B
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stranraer 10 6 2 2 23:9 20
2 Clyde 10 6 2 2 23:17 20
3 Elgin City 10 5 2 3 27:17 17
4 Spartans 10 4 3 3 22:18 15
5 Kelty Hearts 10 4 0 6 14:20 12
6 Dumbarton 10 4 0 6 11:17 12
7 Forfar Athletic 10 3 2 5 10:17 11
8 Stirling 10 3 2 5 13:23 11
9 Edinburgh City 10 4 3 3 20:18 10
10 Annan 10 3 0 7 10:17 9
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League One (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two (Relegation - Play Offs)