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Elgin City vs Kelty Hearts

Scotland Scotland

League Two Borough Briggs, Elgin
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Ferguson A.
29' Event
Hester K.
Assist: Dingwall R.
34'
Murray J.

AI Match Summary

The League Two game between Elgin City and Kelty Hearts finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Elgin City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Elgin City
15%
Draws
39%
Kelty Hearts
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Elgin City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Kelty Hearts haven't matched Elgin City's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Elgin City a 46% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Elgin City Clean Sheet 13%
Kelty Hearts Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Elgin City Kelty Hearts
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 9
Draws 8 7
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.7 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 League Two
Elgin City vs Kelty Hearts
4:1
Nov 30, 2024 Scottish Cup
Elgin City vs Kelty Hearts
3:2
Sep 7, 2024 Challenge Cup
Kelty Hearts vs Elgin City
3:1
Jul 16, 2024 League Cup
Elgin City vs Kelty Hearts
2:1
Mar 19, 2022 League Two
Elgin City vs Kelty Hearts
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Elgin City Compare

Top Goalscorer Hester K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mackay L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Kelty Hearts Compare

Top Goalscorer Cole R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Elgin City 84 / 100
Kelty Hearts 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Elgin City Kelty Hearts

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Elgin City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Elgin City found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Kelty Hearts let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Solid form: Elgin City remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Elgin City VS Kelty Hearts
2.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Elgin City

(Home)
15 Aug
Elgin City
4 : 1
Kelty Hearts
11 Aug
Elgin City
1 : 2
Ross County
08 Aug
Elgin City
1 : 1
Forfar Athletic
01 Aug
Edinburgh City
0 : 5
Elgin City
25 Jul
Hamilton
5 : 0
Elgin City
Page 1 of 6

Kelty Hearts

(Away)
15 Aug
Elgin City
4 : 1
Kelty Hearts
11 Aug
Kelty Hearts
4 : 3
Motherwell B
08 Aug
Kelty Hearts
3 : 2
Stirling
01 Aug
Forfar Athletic
1 : 0
Kelty Hearts
25 Jul
Aberdeen
3 : 0
Kelty Hearts
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Elgin City 3 2 1 0 10:2 7
2 Forfar Athletic 3 2 1 0 5:1 7
3 Clyde 3 2 0 1 5:3 6
4 Spartans 3 1 1 1 6:5 4
5 Stirling 3 1 0 2 4:6 3
6 Annan 3 1 0 2 4:6 3
7 Stranraer 3 1 0 2 2:4 3
8 Kelty Hearts 3 1 0 2 4:7 3
9 Dumbarton 3 1 0 2 1:5 3
10 Edinburgh City 3 1 1 1 5:7 -1
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League One (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two (Relegation - Play Offs)