Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Elgoibar vs Balmaseda

Spain Spain

Tercera Division - Group 4 2012/2013
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Elgoibar in this Tercera Division - Group 4 2012/2013 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Elgoibar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Elgoibar
35%
Draws
55%
Balmaseda
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Balmaseda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • Balmaseda have won more games recently than Elgoibar.
  • 55% — that's where the model lands on Balmaseda taking it.
  • Regular Tercera Division - Group 4 2012/2013 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Elgoibar Clean Sheet 20%
Balmaseda Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Elgoibar Balmaseda
Matches Played 30 35
Wins 7 8
Draws 11 16
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 0.7 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Elgoibar vs Balmaseda
0:0
Sep 22, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Balmaseda vs Elgoibar
3:0
May 18, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Balmaseda vs Elgoibar
4:1
Jan 5, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Elgoibar vs Balmaseda
3:0
Mar 25, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Elgoibar vs Balmaseda
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Elgoibar 12 / 100
Balmaseda 75 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Elgoibar Balmaseda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Balmaseda Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Balmaseda let in goals in 71% of their last 35 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Elgoibar's goal record stands at 40% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Elgoibar has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Balmaseda
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Elgoibar

(Home)
15 Jul
Elgoibar
0 : 5
Real Sociedad
10 May
Zamudio
0 : 0
Elgoibar
03 May
Elgoibar
0 : 1
Bermeo
26 Apr
Beasain
2 : 1
Elgoibar
17 Apr
Elgoibar
0 : 0
Santutxu FC
Page 1 of 6

Balmaseda

(Away)
12 Jun
CD Ariznabarra
2 : 3
Balmaseda
05 Jun
Balmaseda
2 : 0
Lagun Onak
29 May
Santurtzi
1 : 2
Balmaseda
23 May
Balmaseda
0 : 0
SCD Durango
19 May
Balmaseda
2 : 2
Santurtzi
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Laudio 38 23 12 3 65:29 81
2 Arenas Getxo 38 23 9 6 54:24 78
3 Portugalete 38 21 10 7 75:38 73
4 Leioa 38 20 11 7 43:28 71
5 Gernika Club 38 19 12 7 58:31 69
6 Zalla UC 38 18 13 7 51:36 67
7 Bermeo 38 12 16 10 52:47 52
8 SCD Durango 38 11 15 12 39:44 48
9 Zamudio 38 11 14 13 41:52 47
10 Beasain 38 11 14 13 38:41 47
11 Lagun Onak 38 11 13 14 36:41 46
12 Basconia 38 13 6 19 49:59 45
13 Pasaia 38 10 13 15 43:64 43
14 Alaves B 38 11 10 17 40:48 43
15 Elgoibar 38 10 13 15 35:42 43
16 Santutxu FC 38 10 11 17 39:55 41
17 Balmaseda 38 11 7 20 49:57 40
18 Deportivo Getxo 38 9 12 17 34:49 39
19 Aurrera de Vitoria 38 7 8 23 27:57 29
20 Anaitasuna FT 38 6 7 25 35:61 25
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2012/2013 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2012/2013 (Main)