Sport Picks

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Ellerslie W vs Western Springs W

New Zealand New Zealand

Kate Sheppard Cup Women
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Takeda A.
18' Event
Hirano R.
(Penalty)
76' Event
Kirk I.

AI Match Summary

Ellerslie W in this Kate Sheppard Cup Women tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Ellerslie W
22%
Draws
60%
Western Springs W
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Western Springs W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Western Springs W lately — more wins on the board than Ellerslie W.
  • Model gives Western Springs W a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Western Springs W arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Ellerslie W, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Ellerslie W Clean Sheet 16%
Western Springs W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ellerslie W Western Springs W
Matches Played 10 30
Wins 2 15
Draws 0 3
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 2 1.88
Goals Conceded 1 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Kate Sheppard Cup Women
Ellerslie W vs Western Springs W
2:1
Sep 29, 2023 National League Women
Western Springs W vs Ellerslie W
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ellerslie W Compare

Top Goalscorer Takeda A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Western Springs W Compare

Top Goalscorer Kirk I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ellerslie W 19 / 100
Western Springs W 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ellerslie W Western Springs W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick WSP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Western Springs W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Western Springs W lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Ellerslie W's goal record stands at 30% scoring rate across 10 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Ellerslie W VS Western Springs W
2 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ellerslie W

(Home)
04 Jul
Ellerslie W
2 : 1
Western Springs W
19 Nov
Southern United W
3 : 0
Ellerslie W
12 Nov
Eastern Suburbs W
0 : 1
Ellerslie W
04 Nov
Ellerslie W
0 : 1
Central Football W
28 Oct
Waterside Karori W
3 : 0
Ellerslie W
Page 1 of 2

Western Springs W

(Away)
04 Jul
Ellerslie W
2 : 1
Western Springs W
23 Nov
Southern United W
0 : 7
Western Springs W
15 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2 W
3 : 2
Western Springs W
09 Nov
Western Springs W
0 : 2
Auckland United W
31 Oct
West Coast Rangers W
2 : 1
Western Springs W
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Eastern Suburbs W1
Auckland United W0
Ellerslie W2
Western Springs W1
Dunedin City Royals W1
Cashmere Technical W2
Wellington Phoenix 2 W4
Waterside Karori W0
Semi-finals
Eastern Suburbs W-
Ellerslie W-
Cashmere Technical W-
Wellington Phoenix 2 W-
Final
TBD-
TBD-