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Elva vs SK EPMU Tartu

Estonia Estonia

Estonian Cup 2019/2020
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Elva play SK EPMU Tartu in the Estonian Cup 2019/2020. It looks like a close match. Recently, Elva averaged 1.93 goals scored and 1.76 conceded. SK EPMU Tartu averaged 1.59 goals scored and 3.18 conceded. In past meetings, Elva won 1, SK EPMU Tartu won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 24, 2019 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.54 for Elva and 1.38 for SK EPMU Tartu. This points to a Elva double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Elva
15%
Draws
33%
SK EPMU Tartu
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Elva

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Elva picked up more points recently compared to SK EPMU Tartu.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.54 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 77%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 77%
Over 3.5 Goals 46%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Elva Clean Sheet 17%
SK EPMU Tartu Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 78%
Second Half Goal 83%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Elva SK EPMU Tartu
Matches Played 29 17
Wins 14 7
Draws 2 0
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.93 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.76 3.18

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 24, 2019 Estonian Cup
Elva vs SK EPMU Tartu
3:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Elva 50 / 100
SK EPMU Tartu 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Elva SK EPMU Tartu

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Elva or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +18%
2.27
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.6%
1.41
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Elva attacking → ← attacking SK EPMU Tartu

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Elva scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

SK EPMU Tartu let in goals in 88% of their last 17 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Elva went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

SK EPMU Tartu lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 21
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00