Sport Picks
Elva vs Tallinna Kalev - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Estonia
Estonian Cup Nike Arena, Elva 
Match Events
8'
8'
Sibul A.
34'
34'
Reilson J.
55'
55'
Sibul A.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-2. This leg finished 3-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Elva
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Tallinna Kalev haven't matched Elva's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Elva's way, sitting at 80%.
- Elva have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Elva, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Elva Clean Sheet 17%
Tallinna Kalev Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Elva | Tallinna Kalev |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 15 | 12 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 10 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.73 | 2.21 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.43 | 1.76 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 24, 2026 Estonian Cup
Elva vs Tallinna Kalev
3:2
Aug 15, 2026 Esiliiga
Tallinna Kalev vs Elva
1:0
May 24, 2026 Esiliiga
Elva vs Tallinna Kalev
3:1
Apr 9, 2026 Esiliiga
Tallinna Kalev vs Elva
2:1
Oct 30, 2025 Estonian Cup
Elva vs Tallinna Kalev
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Elva Compare
Top Goalscorer Reilson J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Alev P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Tallinna Kalev Compare
Top Goalscorer Sibul A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Purje A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Elva 75 / 100
Tallinna Kalev 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Elva Tallinna Kalev
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Elva Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.
Elva's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Defensive concern: Tallinna Kalev conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.
Elva has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Elva VS Tallinna Kalev
0.63 Goals Scored 1.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
25% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Elva
(Home) 24 Sept
Elva
3 : 2 Tallinna Kalev
19 Sept
Elva
1 : 1 FC Tallinn
13 Sept
Flora Tallinn U21
1 : 2 Elva
10 Sept
Viimsi JK
5 : 0 Elva
06 Sept
Elva
1 : 0 Kalju U21
Page 1 of 6
24 Sept
Elva
3 : 2 Tallinna Kalev
19 Sept
Elva
1 : 1 FC Tallinn
06 Sept
Elva
1 : 0 Kalju U21
24 Aug
Elva
0 : 0 Flora Tallinn U21
20 Aug
Elva
1 : 0 Maardu Linnameeskond
Page 1 of 3
Tallinna Kalev
(Away) 24 Sept
Elva
3 : 2 Tallinna Kalev
18 Sept
Tallinna Kalev
2 : 2 Flora Tallinn U21
13 Sept
Maardu Linnameeskond
: Tallinna Kalev
10 Sept
Nomme Utd U21
2 : 1 Tallinna Kalev
05 Sept
Tallinna Kalev
1 : 1 Tartu JK Welco
Page 1 of 6
24 Sept
Elva
3 : 2 Tallinna Kalev
13 Sept
Maardu Linnameeskond
: Tallinna Kalev
10 Sept
Nomme Utd U21
2 : 1 Tallinna Kalev
29 Aug
Flora Tallinn U21
5 : 0 Tallinna Kalev
20 Aug
Kalju U21
0 : 3 Tallinna Kalev
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Flora -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
JK Arsenal 0
Tallinna Kalev U21 3
Rakvere FC Freedom 3
Kena JK 2
EstHam United -
TBD -
Kose 8
Kummik 0
Rumori Calcio II -
TBD -
TBD -
Tartu JK Welco -
Laanemaa Haapsalu -
TBD -
Jarva-Jaani 0
Elva 4
Arukula Vigri -
TBD -
TBD -
Raasiku Joker -
Tammeka Tartu U19 -
TBD -
TBD -
Tallinna Kalev -
Tartu Kalev 4
Paide Linnameeskond III 3
TBD -
Kuusalu Kalev -
Narva 10
Vana Hea Puur 0
TBD -
Flora Tallinn U21 -
Marjamaa Kompanii -
TBD -
TBD -
Generation Tallinn -
JK Poseidon -
TBD -
Helm 30
Deliirium 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Kalju -
Hiiumaa -
TBD -
TBD -
Tulevik -
Nomme Utd -
TBD -
TBD -
Raplamaa -
Johvi Phoenix 4
Elva III 2
TBD -
FC Hell Hunt -
Lahte United 1
Tabasalu Ulasabat 3
TBD -
Parnu JK Vaprus -
Kristiine -
TBD -
TBD -
Jogeva Wolves -
Kuressaare -
TBD -
TBD -
Tartu JK Welco 2 -
TransferWise -
TBD -
TBD -
Olympic Tallinn -
Saku Sporting -
TBD -
TBD -
Legion -
Kohvile -
TBD -
TBD -
Rumori Calcio -
Tammeka Tartu -
TBD -
TBD -
Zealot Sporting -
Tartu Helios -
TBD -
TBD -
Soccernet -
Viimsi JK -
TBD -
TBD -
Nomme Utd U19 -
FC Tallinn -
TBD -
TBD -
Tallinna FC Zapoos -
Saue JK Laagri 6
Viimsi Lovid 0
TBD -
Harju JK Laagri U21 -
Harju JK Laagri -
TBD -
TBD -
Rae Spordikool -
Tallinna Wolves 0
Tabasalu 10
TBD -
Tamper -
Levadia -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Paide Linnameeskond -
TalTech JK -
TBD -
TBD -
Keila JK -
Flora U19 -
TBD -
TBD -
Pohja-Tallinna -
1/32-finals
Flora -
TBD -
Tallinna Kalev U21 4
Rakvere FC Freedom 2
EstHam United 1
Kose 5
Rumori Calcio II 0
Tartu JK Welco 12
Laanemaa Haapsalu 0
Elva 6
Arukula Vigri 0
Raasiku Joker 1
Tammeka Tartu U19 0
Tallinna Kalev 8
Tartu Kalev 7
Kuusalu Kalev 0
Narva 1
Flora Tallinn U21 0
Marjamaa Kompanii 8
Generation Tallinn 4
JK Poseidon 3
Helm 2
TBD -
Kalju -
Hiiumaa 4
Tulevik 1
Nomme Utd 12
Raplamaa 0
Johvi Phoenix 8
FC Hell Hunt 1
Tabasalu Ulasabat 1
Parnu JK Vaprus 4
Kristiine 8
Jogeva Wolves 3
Kuressaare 5
Tartu JK Welco 2 1
TransferWise 3
Olympic Tallinn 6
Saku Sporting 2
Legion 1
Kohvile 1
Rumori Calcio 4
Tammeka Tartu 19
Zealot Sporting 0
Tartu Helios -
Soccernet -
Viimsi JK 4
Nomme Utd U19 0
FC Tallinn 4
Tallinna FC Zapoos 1
Saue JK Laagri 1
Harju JK Laagri U21 2
Harju JK Laagri 8
Rae Spordikool 0
Tabasalu 0
Tamper 2
Levadia -
TBD -
TBD -
Paide Linnameeskond -
TalTech JK 0
Keila JK 6
Flora U19 6
Pohja-Tallinna 3
1/16-finals
Flora -
Tallinna Kalev U21 -
Kose 0
Tartu JK Welco 8
Elva -
Raasiku Joker -
Tallinna Kalev 8
Tartu Kalev 0
Narva 8
Marjamaa Kompanii 0
JK Poseidon 0
Kalju 12
Hiiumaa 0
Nomme Utd 2
Johvi Phoenix 0
Parnu JK Vaprus 5
Kristiine 0
Kuressaare 8
Olympic Tallinn 0
Saku Sporting 7
Rumori Calcio 0
Tammeka Tartu 1
Tartu Helios 1
Viimsi JK 4
FC Tallinn 5
Harju JK Laagri U21 0
Harju JK Laagri 3
Tamper 1
Levadia 4
Paide Linnameeskond 1
Keila JK 3
Flora U19 2
1/8-finals
TBD -
Tartu JK Welco -
Elva 3
Tallinna Kalev 2
Narva 2
Kalju 0
Nomme Utd 3
Parnu JK Vaprus 2
Kuressaare 4
Saku Sporting 2
Tammeka Tartu 4
Viimsi JK 1
FC Tallinn 0
Harju JK Laagri 10
Levadia 10
Keila JK 0
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
