Sport Picks
Match Events
16'
16'
Nguili A.
45'
45'
Mejri M.
63'
63'
Mejri M.
AI Match Summary
Kerkennah in this Ligue 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kerkennah.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: EM Mahdia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Kerkennah have won more games recently than EM Mahdia.
- Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
EM Mahdia Clean Sheet 16%
Kerkennah Clean Sheet 20%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | EM Mahdia | Kerkennah |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 33 |
| Wins | 10 | 11 |
| Draws | 9 | 10 |
| Losses | 11 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 0.97 | 1.24 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.97 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.69 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 3, 2026 Ligue 2
EM Mahdia vs Kerkennah
2:1
May 11, 2026 Ligue 2
EM Mahdia vs Kerkennah
1:3
Dec 13, 2025 Ligue 2
Kerkennah vs EM Mahdia
1:0
Sep 6, 2025 Club Friendly
Kerkennah vs EM Mahdia
1:0
Aug 23, 2025 Club Friendly
EM Mahdia vs Kerkennah
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
EM Mahdia Compare
Top Goalscorer Nguili A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34
Kerkennah Compare
Top Goalscorer Mejri M.
2 Goals Assists Leader Mannai H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
EM Mahdia 31 / 100
Kerkennah 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
EM Mahdia Kerkennah
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Kerkennah's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 33 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
EM Mahdia has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Away concern: Kerkennah has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
EM Mahdia VS Kerkennah
0.88 Goals Scored 2.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
EM Mahdia
(Home) 03 Oct
EM Mahdia
2 : 1 Kerkennah
26 Sept
Sporting Ben Arous
1 : 2 EM Mahdia
10 Sept
EM Mahdia
3 : 0 Ksour Essef
11 May
EM Mahdia
1 : 3 Kerkennah
01 May
Menzel Bourguiba
1 : 0 EM Mahdia
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
EM Mahdia
2 : 1 Kerkennah
10 Sept
EM Mahdia
3 : 0 Ksour Essef
11 May
EM Mahdia
1 : 3 Kerkennah
27 Apr
EM Mahdia
0 : 1 US Tataouine
13 Apr
EM Mahdia
1 : 1 Chebba
Page 1 of 3
Kerkennah
(Away) 03 Oct
EM Mahdia
2 : 1 Kerkennah
26 Sept
Kerkennah
1 : 2 Msaken
20 Sept
Kerkennah
0 : 1 Ksour Essef
12 Sept
Kerkennah
5 : 0 Kalaa
11 May
EM Mahdia
1 : 3 Kerkennah
Page 1 of 7
03 Oct
EM Mahdia
2 : 1 Kerkennah
11 May
EM Mahdia
1 : 3 Kerkennah
18 Apr
Menzel Bourguiba
0 : 4 Kerkennah
04 Apr
Megrine
1 : 1 Kerkennah
28 Feb
AS Agareb
1 : 0 Kerkennah
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamam-Sousse | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 40:19 | 51 |
| 2 | Hammam-Lif | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 36:14 | 51 |
| 3 | US Tataouine | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 34:16 | 51 |
| 4 | Sfax Railways | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 35:26 | 46 |
| 5 | Sporting Ben Arous | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 30:19 | 34 |
| 6 | Kerkennah | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 27:27 | 34 |
| 7 | Chebba | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33:37 | 33 |
| 8 | Msaken | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 23:28 | 31 |
| 9 | BS Bouhajla | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 21:23 | 30 |
| 10 | Megrine | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 25:35 | 30 |
| 11 | EM Mahdia | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 18:25 | 28 |
| 12 | AS Agareb | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 22:33 | 28 |
| 13 | Bousalem | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 19:34 | 25 |
| 14 | Menzel Bourguiba | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 15:42 | 17 |
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PS Sakiet Eddaier | 26 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 54:15 | 56 |
| 2 | Stade Gabesien | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 43:16 | 53 |
| 3 | Kasserine | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 31:18 | 47 |
| 4 | Jendouba Sport | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 34:24 | 38 |
| 5 | Korba | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 21:20 | 37 |
| 6 | Bouchamma | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35:30 | 35 |
| 7 | Gafsa | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 28:31 | 34 |
| 8 | Ariana | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26:32 | 32 |
| 9 | Ksour Essef | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 40:34 | 32 |
| 10 | Redeyef | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27:39 | 32 |
| 11 | Kalaa | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 28:44 | 30 |
| 12 | Moknine | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 29:36 | 29 |
| 13 | Djelma | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 16:33 | 26 |
| 14 | Sidi Bouzid | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 17:57 | 14 |
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
