Sport Picks
EM Mahdia vs Menzel Bourguiba - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Tunisia
Ligue 2 2025/2026 
Match Events
4'
4'
Sfaxi F.
46'
46'
Sfaxi F.
56'
56'
Lazaar J.
AI Match Summary
The Ligue 2 2025/2026 game between EM Mahdia and Menzel Bourguiba finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward EM Mahdia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
64%
15%
21%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: EM Mahdia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
64%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and EM Mahdia come out ahead of Menzel Bourguiba on wins alone.
- EM Mahdia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
EM Mahdia Clean Sheet 68%
Menzel Bourguiba Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | EM Mahdia | Menzel Bourguiba |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 5 |
| Draws | 8 | 8 |
| Losses | 11 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 0.93 | 0.7 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.93 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 0.51 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 1, 2026 Ligue 2
Menzel Bourguiba vs EM Mahdia
1:0
Dec 6, 2025 Ligue 2
EM Mahdia vs Menzel Bourguiba
2:0
Feb 23, 2025 Ligue 2
Menzel Bourguiba vs EM Mahdia
2:0
Nov 3, 2024 Ligue 2
EM Mahdia vs Menzel Bourguiba
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
EM Mahdia Compare
Top Goalscorer Sfaxi F.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Menzel Bourguiba Compare
Avg xG / game 0.46
Avg xA / game 0.28
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
EM Mahdia 95 / 100
Menzel Bourguiba 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
EM Mahdia Menzel Bourguiba
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick EM Mahdia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Menzel Bourguiba has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.
H2H data points to 1.75 goals as a typical output.
EM Mahdia has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Difficult form: Menzel Bourguiba registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
EM Mahdia VS Menzel Bourguiba
0.13 Goals Scored 0.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.75
38% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
EM Mahdia
(Home) 03 Oct
EM Mahdia
2 : 1 Kerkennah
26 Sept
Sporting Ben Arous
1 : 2 EM Mahdia
10 Sept
EM Mahdia
3 : 0 Ksour Essef
11 May
EM Mahdia
1 : 3 Kerkennah
01 May
Menzel Bourguiba
1 : 0 EM Mahdia
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
EM Mahdia
2 : 1 Kerkennah
10 Sept
EM Mahdia
3 : 0 Ksour Essef
11 May
EM Mahdia
1 : 3 Kerkennah
27 Apr
EM Mahdia
0 : 1 US Tataouine
13 Apr
EM Mahdia
1 : 1 Chebba
Page 1 of 3
Menzel Bourguiba
(Away) 11 May
Sporting Ben Arous
6 : 0 Menzel Bourguiba
01 May
Menzel Bourguiba
1 : 0 EM Mahdia
27 Apr
Hammam-Lif
1 : 0 Menzel Bourguiba
18 Apr
Menzel Bourguiba
0 : 4 Kerkennah
13 Apr
Hamam-Sousse
3 : 0 Menzel Bourguiba
Page 1 of 6
11 May
Sporting Ben Arous
6 : 0 Menzel Bourguiba
27 Apr
Hammam-Lif
1 : 0 Menzel Bourguiba
13 Apr
Hamam-Sousse
3 : 0 Menzel Bourguiba
05 Apr
US Tataouine
3 : 0 Menzel Bourguiba
28 Feb
Chebba
4 : 0 Menzel Bourguiba
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamam-Sousse | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 40:19 | 51 |
| 2 | Hammam-Lif | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 36:14 | 51 |
| 3 | US Tataouine | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 34:16 | 51 |
| 4 | Sfax Railways | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 35:26 | 46 |
| 5 | Sporting Ben Arous | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 30:19 | 34 |
| 6 | Kerkennah | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 27:27 | 34 |
| 7 | Chebba | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33:37 | 33 |
| 8 | Msaken | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 23:28 | 31 |
| 9 | BS Bouhajla | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 21:23 | 30 |
| 10 | Megrine | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 25:35 | 30 |
| 11 | EM Mahdia | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 18:25 | 28 |
| 12 | AS Agareb | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 22:33 | 28 |
| 13 | Bousalem | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 19:34 | 25 |
| 14 | Menzel Bourguiba | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 15:42 | 17 |
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PS Sakiet Eddaier | 26 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 54:15 | 56 |
| 2 | Stade Gabesien | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 43:16 | 53 |
| 3 | Kasserine | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 31:18 | 47 |
| 4 | Jendouba Sport | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 34:24 | 38 |
| 5 | Korba | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 21:20 | 37 |
| 6 | Bouchamma | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35:30 | 35 |
| 7 | Gafsa | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 28:31 | 34 |
| 8 | Ariana | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26:32 | 32 |
| 9 | Ksour Essef | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 40:34 | 32 |
| 10 | Redeyef | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27:39 | 32 |
| 11 | Kalaa | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 28:44 | 30 |
| 12 | Moknine | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 29:36 | 29 |
| 13 | Djelma | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 16:33 | 26 |
| 14 | Sidi Bouzid | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 17:57 | 14 |
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
