Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Emelec vs LDU Quito

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio George Capwell, Guayaquil
Our Tip

Match Events

53'
Quintero S.
56'
Caicedo R.
58' Event
Fragozo L.
Assist: Klimowicz L.

AI Match Summary

Emelec in this Liga Pro matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Emelec.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Emelec
11%
Draws
80%
LDU Quito
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: LDU Quito

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Emelec haven't matched LDU Quito's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans LDU Quito's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Liga Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Emelec Clean Sheet 23%
LDU Quito Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Emelec LDU Quito
Matches Played 29 35
Wins 9 16
Draws 8 8
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 0.88 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Liga Pro
Emelec vs LDU Quito
1:0
Dec 4, 2025 Copa Ecuador
LDU Quito vs Emelec
1:1
Nov 18, 2025 Copa Ecuador
Emelec vs LDU Quito
1:2
Jul 12, 2025 Liga Pro
LDU Quito vs Emelec
2:0
Mar 16, 2025 Liga Pro
Emelec vs LDU Quito
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Emelec Compare

Top Goalscorer Fragozo L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

LDU Quito Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Emelec 13 / 100
LDU Quito 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Emelec LDU Quito

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LDU Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Emelec found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

LDU Quito has conceded goals in 60% of their last 35 outings.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Emelec stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Emelec VS LDU Quito
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Emelec

(Home)
28 Jul
Dep. Cuenca
2 : 1
Emelec
24 Jul
Emelec
1 : 1
Mushuc Runa
20 Jul
Independiente del Valle
6 : 1
Emelec
17 Jul
Orense
0 : 2
Emelec
12 Jul
Emelec
0 : 0
Barcelona SC
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LDU Quito

(Away)
30 Jul
LDU Quito
6 : 0
Leones del Norte
27 Jul
Barcelona SC
0 : 1
LDU Quito
23 Jul
Manta
1 : 1
LDU Quito
18 Jul
LDU Quito
0 : 1
Leones del Norte
15 Jul
U. Catolica
1 : 0
LDU Quito
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Independiente del Valle22181355:2255
2U. Catolica22106633:1936
3Macara22105728:2235
4Aucas22105724:2535
5Barcelona SC2297623:1734
6LDU Quito2295821:1732
7Leones del Norte2287723:2131
8Dep. Cuenca2294921:2731
9Libertad2386924:2630
10Guayaquil City2277819:2328
11Emelec2277819:2628
12Tecnico U.22821220:2426
13Orense23751127:3526
14Mushuc Runa2267927:3325
15Delfin22651113:2123
16Manta2235148:2714
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)