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England vs Wales

World World

Friendly International 2025 Wembley Stadium, London
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Rogers M.
Assist: Guehi M.
11' Event
Watkins O.
Assist: Guehi M.
20' Event
Saka B.
Assist: Konsa E.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2025 game between England and Wales finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward England.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
England
20%
Draws
24%
Wales
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: England

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • England carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and England have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 15%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
England Clean Sheet 68%
Wales Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric England Wales
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 24 12
Draws 2 10
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 2.29 1.6
Goals Conceded 0.74 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.40 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2025 Friendly International
England vs Wales
3:0
Nov 29, 2022 World Championship
Wales vs England
0:3
Oct 8, 2020 Friendly International
England vs Wales
3:0
Jun 16, 2016 Euro
England vs Wales
2:1
Sep 6, 2011 Euro
England vs Wales
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

England Compare

Top Goalscorer Rogers M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Watkins O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.7

Wales Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

England 41 / 100
Wales 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
England Wales

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick England Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

England scored in 94% of their last 31 games.

Wales's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: England remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

England VS Wales
1.63 Goals Scored 2
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.17
63% Over 1.5 83%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

England

(Home)
18 Jul
France
4 : 6
England
15 Jul
England
1 : 2
Argentina
11 Jul
Norway
1 : 2
England
06 Jul
Mexico
2 : 3
England
01 Jul
England
2 : 1
D.R. Congo
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Wales

(Away)
06 Jun
Romania
2 : 1
Wales
02 Jun
Wales
1 : 1
Ghana
31 Mar
Wales
1 : 1
Northern Ireland
26 Mar
Wales
1 : 2
Bosnia & Herzegovina
18 Nov
Wales
7 : 1
North Macedonia
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