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Stadium Background

Envigado vs Union Magdalena - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Colombia Colombia

Primera B Estadio Polideportivo Sur, Envigado
Our Tip

Match Events

36'
Cuervo G.
41'
Mera D.
45'
Arrieta G.

AI Match Summary

The Primera B game between Envigado and Union Magdalena finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Union Magdalena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Envigado
35%
Draws
37%
Union Magdalena
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Union Magdalena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Union Magdalena come out ahead of Envigado on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Envigado Clean Sheet 68%
Union Magdalena Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Envigado Union Magdalena
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 11
Draws 10 8
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.25 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 1, 2026 Primera B
Envigado vs Union Magdalena
0:1
Apr 9, 2026 Primera B
Union Magdalena vs Envigado
4:2
Oct 17, 2025 Primera A
Union Magdalena vs Envigado
3:1
Apr 26, 2025 Primera A
Envigado vs Union Magdalena
2:1
Jul 31, 2023 Primera A
Envigado vs Union Magdalena
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Envigado Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Union Magdalena Compare

Top Goalscorer Lerma J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Envigado 41 / 100
Union Magdalena 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Envigado Union Magdalena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Envigado Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Envigado went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Envigado found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Union Magdalena has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Scoring Trends

Envigado VS Union Magdalena
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Envigado

(Home)
05 Oct
Bogota
3 : 3
Envigado
01 Oct
Envigado
0 : 0
Orsomarso
27 Sept
Envigado
3 : 0
Atletico F.C.
22 Sept
Cartagena
0 : 0
Envigado
12 Sept
Envigado
1 : 1
Leones
Page 1 of 6

Union Magdalena

(Away)
07 Oct
Boca Juniors de Cali
1 : 1
Union Magdalena
03 Oct
Real Santander
1 : 3
Union Magdalena
29 Sept
Union Magdalena
1 : 1
Cartagena
25 Sept
Union Magdalena
1 : 1
Santa Fe
18 Sept
Patriotas
1 : 2
Union Magdalena
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente Valle del Cauca 12 7 3 2 16:7 24
2 Real Cundinamarca 11 7 2 2 19:10 23
3 Tigres Futbol Club 12 6 4 2 14:5 22
4 Boca Juniors de Cali 11 5 3 3 18:14 18
5 Patriotas 11 5 2 4 17:17 17
6 Cartagena 12 4 4 4 21:16 16
7 Quindio 11 4 4 3 9:8 16
8 Atletico F.C. 12 4 3 5 15:19 15
9 Inter Palmira 11 4 2 5 8:12 14
10 Envigado 11 2 6 3 12:11 12
11 Union Magdalena 11 3 3 5 10:12 12
12 Bogota 11 3 3 5 9:13 12
13 Real Santander 11 2 6 3 13:18 12
14 Orsomarso 11 2 4 5 7:11 10
15 Leones 11 2 4 5 8:17 10
16 Barranquilla 11 2 3 6 11:17 9
Promotion - Primera B (Clausura - Quadrangular)