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Equatorial Guinea vs Madagascar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International Emir hotels Ilicia stadium, Antalya
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Match Events

45' Event
Zuniga L.
Assist: Ngaah P.
62' Event
Raveloson R.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International game between Equatorial Guinea and Madagascar finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Equatorial Guinea
30%
Draws
29%
Madagascar
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Equatorial Guinea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Madagascar carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 41% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Friendly International form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Madagascar here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Equatorial Guinea Clean Sheet 68%
Madagascar Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Equatorial Guinea Madagascar
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 8 12
Draws 7 4
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 0.76 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 Friendly International
Equatorial Guinea vs Madagascar
1:1
Nov 17, 2025 Friendly International
Madagascar vs Equatorial Guinea
2:0
Oct 16, 2018 Africa Cup of Nations
Madagascar vs Equatorial Guinea
1:0
Oct 13, 2018 Africa Cup of Nations
Equatorial Guinea vs Madagascar
0:1
Nov 15, 2011 World Championship
Madagascar vs Equatorial Guinea
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Equatorial Guinea Compare

Top Goalscorer Zuniga L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Madagascar Compare

Top Goalscorer Raveloson R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Equatorial Guinea 41 / 100
Madagascar 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Equatorial Guinea Madagascar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Equatorial Guinea Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Madagascar has conceded goals in 74% of their last 27 outings.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Equatorial Guinea stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Equatorial Guinea scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Scoring Trends

Equatorial Guinea VS Madagascar
0.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Equatorial Guinea

(Home)
28 Sept
Equatorial Guinea
1 : 0
Sierra Leone
24 Sept
D.R. Congo
2 : 0
Equatorial Guinea
09 Jun
Equatorial Guinea
0 : 1
Comoros
31 Mar
Equatorial Guinea
1 : 1
Madagascar
25 Mar
Kyrgyzstan
0 : 1
Equatorial Guinea
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Madagascar

(Away)
29 Sept
Madagascar
1 : 1
Tanzania
25 Sept
Nigeria
2 : 1
Madagascar
02 Jun
Morocco
4 : 0
Madagascar
31 Mar
Equatorial Guinea
1 : 1
Madagascar
28 Mar
Kyrgyzstan
2 : 5
Madagascar
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