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Erbaaspor vs Aliaga - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Turkey Turkey

2. Lig White Group
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Arslan A.
Assist: Sarikaya M.
17' Event
Arslan A.
(Penalty)
55' Event
Balci O.

AI Match Summary

Aliaga in this 2. Lig White Group matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aliaga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Erbaaspor
15%
Draws
57%
Aliaga
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aliaga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aliaga lately — more wins on the board than Erbaaspor.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular 2. Lig White Group form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Erbaaspor Clean Sheet 10%
Aliaga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erbaaspor Aliaga
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 6 16
Draws 6 6
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 1.07 1.94
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 2. Lig White Group
Erbaaspor vs Aliaga
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erbaaspor Compare

Top Goalscorer Balci O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Erdogan D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Aliaga Compare

Top Goalscorer Arslan A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Gedikli E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erbaaspor 30 / 100
Aliaga 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erbaaspor Aliaga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 6.00 goals as a typical output.

Erbaaspor scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Aliaga let in goals in 69% of their last 32 matches.

Recent resilience: Erbaaspor stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Erbaaspor VS Aliaga
1.88 Goals Scored 1.63
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Erbaaspor

(Home)
07 Oct
Pazarspor
3 : 1
Erbaaspor
03 Oct
Erbaaspor
2 : 4
Aliaga
27 Sept
Adanademirspor
0 : 3
Erbaaspor
20 Sept
Erbaaspor
3 : 2
Sebat Spor Kulubu
13 Sept
Ankaraspor
2 : 1
Erbaaspor
Page 1 of 6

Aliaga

(Away)
03 Oct
Erbaaspor
2 : 4
Aliaga
27 Sept
Aliaga
2 : 1
Sanliurfaspor
19 Sept
Elazigspor
5 : 0
Aliaga
13 Sept
Aliaga
2 : 0
Isparta 32 Spor
06 Sept
Arnavutkoy Bl.
1 : 4
Aliaga
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Musspor 5 4 1 0 15:7 13
2 Aliaga 5 4 0 1 12:9 12
3 Elazigspor 5 3 1 1 12:4 10
4 Corluspor 5 3 1 1 11:5 10
5 Guzide Gebzespor 5 2 3 0 7:4 9
6 Menemenspor 5 3 0 2 7:7 9
7 Inegol Kafkas 5 2 1 2 9:7 7
8 Erbaaspor 5 2 1 2 13:12 7
9 Soma Spor 4 2 1 1 8:7 7
10 Isparta 32 Spor 5 2 1 2 8:8 7
11 Sanliurfaspor 5 1 3 1 7:7 6
12 Ankaraspor 5 2 0 3 3:6 6
13 Aksaray Bld. 5 1 2 2 9:8 5
14 Kastamonuspor 5 2 0 3 4:13 3
15 Sebat Spor Kulubu 4 0 1 3 6:10 1
16 Arnavutkoy Bl. 5 0 0 5 2:11 0
17 Hatayspor 5 1 1 3 2:4 -2
18 Adanademirspor 5 1 1 3 3:9 -44
Promotion - 1. Lig 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - 2. Lig Play Offs 2026/2027 (Main)