Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Erbil vs Al-Karma

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Amadi S.
Assist: Faisal A.
38' Event
Faisal A.
61' Event
Walid M.
Assist: Bayesh I.

AI Match Summary

Al-Karma in this Stars League matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al-Karma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Erbil
20%
Draws
45%
Al-Karma
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al-Karma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Erbil have won more games recently than Al-Karma.
  • 45% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Erbil Clean Sheet 23%
Al-Karma Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erbil Al-Karma
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 13
Draws 8 12
Losses 3 4
Goals Scored 1.66 1.59
Goals Conceded 0.69 0.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 14, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Al-Karma
1:2
Mar 7, 2026 Stars League
Al-Karma vs Erbil
2:3
Oct 3, 2025 Stars League
Erbil vs Al-Karma
2:1
Apr 23, 2025 Stars League
Al-Karma vs Erbil
1:0
Jan 10, 2025 Stars League
Erbil vs Al-Karma
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erbil Compare

Top Goalscorer Walid M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al-Karma Compare

Top Goalscorer Amadi S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Faisal A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erbil 37 / 100
Al-Karma 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erbil Al-Karma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al-Karma Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Erbil's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Al-Karma's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Erbil remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Erbil VS Al-Karma
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Erbil

(Home)
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2
Al-Karma
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
04 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Erbil
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Minaa
25 Aug
Al Karkh
0 : 1
Erbil
Page 1 of 6

Al-Karma

(Away)
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2
Al-Karma
09 Sept
Al-Karma
3 : 0
Al Naft
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al-Karma
30 Aug
Al-Karma
2 : 0
Karbala
26 Aug
Al Kahraba
1 : 1
Al-Karma
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Karma 7 5 2 0 13:5 17
2 Al Zawraa 7 4 3 0 13:3 15
3 Newroz 7 4 2 1 13:4 14
4 Erbil 7 4 2 1 9:3 14
5 Al Naft 7 3 3 1 8:5 12
6 Al Shorta 7 3 3 1 7:4 12
7 Al Golan 7 2 3 2 6:7 9
8 Zakho 7 2 3 2 7:10 9
9 Duhok 7 1 5 1 10:10 8
10 Diyala 7 2 2 3 12:13 8
11 Al Mosul 7 2 2 3 9:11 8
12 Al Minaa 7 2 2 3 7:9 8
13 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 7 1 4 2 10:11 7
14 Ghaz Al Shamal 7 1 4 2 4:5 7
15 Al Kahraba 7 1 4 2 6:8 7
16 Naft Missan 7 1 4 2 4:8 7
17 Al Talaba 7 1 3 3 7:12 6
18 Karbala 7 1 2 4 6:12 5
19 Al Gharraf 7 1 2 4 4:10 5
20 Al Karkh 7 1 1 5 7:12 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)