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Erbil vs Al Karma - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Amadi S.
Assist: Faisal A.
38' Event
Faisal A.
61' Event
Walid M.
Assist: Bayesh I.

AI Match Summary

Al Karma in this Stars League matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Karma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Erbil
20%
Draws
47%
Al Karma
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Al Karma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Erbil have won more games recently than Al Karma.
  • 33% — that's where the model lands on Erbil taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Erbil Clean Sheet 68%
Al Karma Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erbil Al Karma
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 15
Draws 8 12
Losses 5 3
Goals Scored 1.87 1.57
Goals Conceded 0.8 0.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 14, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Karma
1:2
Mar 7, 2026 Stars League
Al Karma vs Erbil
2:3
Oct 3, 2025 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Karma
2:1
Apr 23, 2025 Stars League
Al Karma vs Erbil
1:0
Jan 10, 2025 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Karma
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erbil Compare

Top Goalscorer Walid M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Al Karma Compare

Top Goalscorer Amadi S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Faisal A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erbil 50 / 100
Al Karma 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erbil Al Karma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erbil Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Erbil's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Erbil has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Al Karma conceded in 53% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Erbil VS Al Karma
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Erbil

(Home)
04 Nov
Erbil
6 : 0
Kazma SC
30 Oct
Erbil
1 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
28 Oct
Erbil
3 : 0
Al Ettifaq FC
22 Oct
Zakho
2 : 1
Erbil
18 Oct
Erbil
0 : 1
Al Mosul
Page 1 of 6

Al Karma

(Away)
06 Nov
Al Karma
4 : 1
Naft Missan
30 Oct
Al Karma
1 : 0
Duhok
24 Oct
Al Minaa
2 : 1
Al Karma
17 Oct
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0 : 0
Al Karma
10 Oct
Al Karma
3 : 2
Al Karkh
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 13 9 3 1 23:10 30
2 Newroz 13 7 5 1 18:5 26
3 Al Naft 12 7 4 1 14:5 25
4 Al Golan 13 6 5 2 19:12 23
5 Al Shorta 12 5 6 1 13:6 21
6 Al Zawraa 13 6 3 4 17:12 21
7 Erbil 12 5 4 3 15:8 19
8 Duhok 13 4 6 3 20:16 18
9 Al Minaa 13 4 5 4 12:13 17
10 Ghaz Al Shamal 13 3 7 3 9:10 16
11 Al Talaba 13 3 7 3 15:18 16
12 Diyala 13 3 5 5 15:18 14
13 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 13 2 7 4 14:14 13
14 Al Gharraf 12 3 4 5 8:14 13
15 Zakho 13 3 4 6 10:17 13
16 Al Karkh 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
17 Al Mosul 13 3 3 7 13:21 12
18 Al Kahraba 13 2 5 6 9:15 11
19 Naft Missan 13 1 6 6 8:19 9
20 Karbala 13 1 4 8 11:25 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)