Sport Picks
Match Events
3'
3'
Temirov S.
28'
28'
Temirov S.
(Penalty)
68'
68'
Raheem A.
AI Match Summary
The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Erbil and Al Mosul finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
73%
20%
7%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Erbil
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
73%
/ High Confidence
- Erbil carry the better recent record into this one.
- 73% — that's where the model lands on Erbil taking it.
- Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Erbil Clean Sheet 68%
Al Mosul Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Erbil | Al Mosul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 19 | 8 |
| Draws | 8 | 13 |
| Losses | 3 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.67 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 9, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Mosul
2:2
Jan 8, 2026 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Erbil
0:2
Jun 27, 2011 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Erbil
2:2
Feb 16, 2011 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Mosul
4:0
May 28, 2010 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Erbil
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Erbil Compare
Top Goalscorer Temirov S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Al Mosul Compare
Top Goalscorer Raheem A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Erbil 95 / 100
Al Mosul 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Erbil Al Mosul
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Erbil Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Erbil scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.
Al Mosul has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Solid form: Erbil remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Erbil VS Al Mosul
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Erbil
(Home) 18 Sept
Karbala
0 : 3 Erbil
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2 Al-Karma
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0 Diyala
04 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0 Erbil
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0 Al Minaa
Page 1 of 6
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2 Al-Karma
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0 Diyala
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0 Al Minaa
21 Aug
Erbil
1 : 1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya
16 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0 Al Kahraba
Page 1 of 3
Al Mosul
(Away) 18 Sept
Al Mosul
0 : 1 Al Naft
13 Sept
Zakho
2 : 1 Al Mosul
09 Sept
Newroz
3 : 0 Al Mosul
03 Sept
Al Mosul
2 : 2 Al Zawraa
30 Aug
Al Shorta
2 : 0 Al Mosul
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Zakho
2 : 1 Al Mosul
09 Sept
Newroz
3 : 0 Al Mosul
30 Aug
Al Shorta
2 : 0 Al Mosul
15 Aug
Al-Karma
1 : 1 Al Mosul
27 May
Newroz
1 : 1 Al Mosul
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 38 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 62:28 | 89 |
| 2 | Al Shorta | 38 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 69:32 | 80 |
| 3 | Erbil | 38 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 59:32 | 79 |
| 4 | Al Zawraa | 38 | 17 | 15 | 6 | 50:32 | 66 |
| 5 | Al-Karma | 38 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 53:26 | 65 |
| 6 | Al Talaba | 38 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 53:38 | 65 |
| 7 | Al Karkh | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 51:41 | 60 |
| 8 | Newroz | 38 | 16 | 6 | 16 | 48:47 | 54 |
| 9 | Zakho | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 49:45 | 53 |
| 10 | Duhok | 38 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 44:45 | 50 |
| 11 | Diyala | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 40:42 | 49 |
| 12 | Al Naft | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 33:34 | 48 |
| 13 | Al Mosul | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 46:49 | 47 |
| 14 | Al Gharraf | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 40:43 | 44 |
| 15 | Naft Missan | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 48:57 | 43 |
| 16 | Al Minaa | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 38:47 | 40 |
| 17 | Al Kahraba | 37 | 11 | 5 | 21 | 44:56 | 38 |
| 18 | Baghdad | 38 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 47:68 | 37 |
| 19 | Al Najaf | 37 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 31:68 | 23 |
| 20 | Al-Qassim | 38 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 21:96 | 6 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
