Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Erbil vs Al Mosul

Iraq Iraq

Stars League Franso Hariri Stadium, Arbil
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Temirov S.
28' Event
Temirov S.
(Penalty)
68' Event
Raheem A.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Erbil and Al Mosul finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Erbil
11%
Draws
9%
Al Mosul
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Erbil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Erbil carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Erbil taking it.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Erbil Clean Sheet 68%
Al Mosul Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erbil Al Mosul
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 8
Draws 8 13
Losses 5 9
Goals Scored 1.88 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 9, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Mosul
2:2
Jan 8, 2026 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Erbil
0:2
Jun 27, 2011 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Erbil
2:2
Feb 16, 2011 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Mosul
4:0
May 28, 2010 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Erbil
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erbil Compare

Top Goalscorer Temirov S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Al Mosul Compare

Top Goalscorer Raheem A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erbil 86 / 100
Al Mosul 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erbil Al Mosul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ERB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Mosul has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Attacking prowess: Erbil scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Erbil remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Erbil VS Al Mosul
1.88 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Erbil

(Home)
02 Jun
Erbil
3 : 1
Baghdad
28 May
Zakho
1 : 2
Erbil
20 May
Al Shorta
0 : 2
Erbil
16 May
Erbil
0 : 1
Newroz
11 May
Al Najaf
1 : 4
Erbil
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Al Mosul

(Away)
01 Jun
Al Mosul
3 : 0
Al-Qassim
27 May
Newroz
1 : 1
Al Mosul
20 May
Al Minaa
1 : 0
Al Mosul
15 May
Al Mosul
3 : 3
Duhok
11 May
Al Mosul
2 : 2
Al Talaba
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Quwa Al Jawiya38278362:2889
2Al Shorta38248669:3280
3Erbil382310559:3279
4Al Zawraa381715650:3266
5Al-Karma381714753:2665
6Al Talaba381811953:3865
7Al Karkh3816121051:4160
8Newroz381661648:4754
9Zakho3814111349:4553
10Duhok3813111444:4550
11Diyala3813101540:4249
12Al Naft3811151233:3448
13Al Mosul3811141346:4947
14Al Gharraf3811111640:4344
15Naft Missan3811101748:5743
16Al Minaa389131638:4740
17Al Kahraba371152144:5638
18Baghdad381072147:6837
19Al Najaf37652631:6823
20Al-Qassim38063221:966
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)