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Erbil vs Al Mosul - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Miullen
Penalty Missed
48' Event
Osama Nabih Y.
Assist: Luqman G.

AI Match Summary

Al Mosul in this Stars League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Al Mosul.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Erbil
30%
Draws
23%
Al Mosul
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Erbil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Erbil have won more games recently than Al Mosul.
  • Erbil are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Erbil Clean Sheet 68%
Al Mosul Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erbil Al Mosul
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 17 8
Draws 9 12
Losses 5 10
Goals Scored 1.84 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.81 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 18, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Mosul
0:1
Apr 9, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Mosul
2:2
Jan 8, 2026 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Erbil
0:2
Jun 27, 2011 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Erbil
2:2
Feb 16, 2011 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Mosul
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erbil Compare

Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Al Mosul Compare

Top Goalscorer Osama Nabih Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erbil 95 / 100
Al Mosul 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erbil Al Mosul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erbil Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Erbil scored in 87% of their last 31 outings.

Al Mosul's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Erbil stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Erbil VS Al Mosul
1.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Erbil

(Home)
08 Nov
Erbil
1 : 1
Al Gharraf
04 Nov
Erbil
6 : 0
Kazma SC
30 Oct
Erbil
1 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
28 Oct
Erbil
3 : 0
Al Ettifaq FC
22 Oct
Zakho
2 : 1
Erbil
Page 1 of 7

Al Mosul

(Away)
05 Nov
Al Mosul
0 : 1
Duhok
29 Oct
Al Mosul
2 : 4
Al Golan
23 Oct
Al Karkh
1 : 1
Al Mosul
18 Oct
Erbil
0 : 1
Al Mosul
07 Oct
Al Mosul
0 : 3
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 13 9 3 1 23:10 30
2 Newroz 13 7 5 1 18:5 26
3 Al Naft 13 7 4 2 15:7 25
4 Al Shorta 13 6 6 1 15:7 24
5 Al Golan 13 6 5 2 19:12 23
6 Al Zawraa 13 6 3 4 17:12 21
7 Erbil 13 5 5 3 16:9 20
8 Duhok 13 4 6 3 20:16 18
9 Al Minaa 13 4 5 4 12:13 17
10 Ghaz Al Shamal 13 3 7 3 9:10 16
11 Al Talaba 13 3 7 3 15:18 16
12 Diyala 13 3 5 5 15:18 14
13 Al Gharraf 13 3 5 5 9:15 14
14 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 13 2 7 4 14:14 13
15 Zakho 13 3 4 6 10:17 13
16 Al Karkh 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
17 Al Mosul 13 3 3 7 13:21 12
18 Al Kahraba 13 2 5 6 9:15 11
19 Naft Missan 13 1 6 6 8:19 9
20 Karbala 13 1 4 8 11:25 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)