Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Erbil vs Diyala

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Shebar A.
27'
Al Matari A.
90' Event
Bayesh I.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Erbil in this Stars League matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Erbil.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Erbil
35%
Draws
10%
Diyala
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Erbil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • Erbil have won more games recently than Diyala.
  • Model gives Erbil a 55% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Erbil Clean Sheet 68%
Diyala Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erbil Diyala
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 18 9
Draws 8 6
Losses 2 14
Goals Scored 1.68 1
Goals Conceded 0.64 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 8, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Diyala
2:0
Mar 23, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Diyala
2:0
Dec 22, 2025 Stars League
Diyala vs Erbil
1:1
May 12, 2025 Stars League
Diyala vs Erbil
1:0
Sep 20, 2024 Stars League
Erbil vs Diyala
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erbil Compare

Top Goalscorer Shebar A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Diyala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erbil 95 / 100
Diyala 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erbil Diyala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erbil Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Erbil scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: Erbil remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Diyala let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Erbil VS Diyala
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Erbil

(Home)
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
04 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Erbil
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Minaa
25 Aug
Al Karkh
0 : 1
Erbil
21 Aug
Erbil
1 : 1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
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Diyala

(Away)
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
03 Sept
Diyala
1 : 2
Al-Karma
29 Aug
Diyala
3 : 3
Al Golan
25 Aug
Zakho
2 : 2
Diyala
21 Aug
Al Mosul
2 : 1
Diyala
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Zawraa 7 4 3 0 13:3 15
2 Al-Karma 6 4 2 0 11:4 14
3 Erbil 6 4 2 0 8:1 14
4 Al Shorta 7 3 3 1 7:4 12
5 Al Naft 6 2 3 1 6:4 9
6 Al Golan 6 2 3 1 6:5 9
7 Zakho 7 2 3 2 7:10 9
8 Al Talaba 7 2 3 2 7:12 9
9 Newroz 6 2 2 2 11:4 8
10 Duhok 7 1 5 1 10:10 8
11 Diyala 7 2 2 3 12:13 8
12 Al Mosul 7 2 2 3 9:11 8
13 Al Minaa 7 2 2 3 7:9 8
14 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 7 1 4 2 10:11 7
15 Ghaz Al Shamal 7 1 4 2 4:5 7
16 Al Kahraba 7 1 4 2 6:8 7
17 Naft Missan 7 1 4 2 4:8 7
18 Karbala 6 1 2 3 5:10 5
19 Al Gharraf 7 1 2 4 4:10 5
20 Al Karkh 7 1 1 5 7:12 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)