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Erbil vs Diyala - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Ali S.
27'
Al Matari A.
90' Event
Bayesh I.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Erbil in this Stars League matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Erbil.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Erbil
35%
Draws
25%
Diyala
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Erbil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Erbil have won more games recently than Diyala.
  • Model gives Erbil a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Erbil Clean Sheet 68%
Diyala Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erbil Diyala
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 9
Draws 9 8
Losses 5 13
Goals Scored 1.83 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 8, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Diyala
2:0
Mar 23, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Diyala
2:0
Dec 22, 2025 Stars League
Diyala vs Erbil
1:1
May 12, 2025 Stars League
Diyala vs Erbil
1:0
Sep 20, 2024 Stars League
Erbil vs Diyala
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erbil Compare

Top Goalscorer Ali S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Diyala Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erbil 95 / 100
Diyala 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erbil Diyala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erbil Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Erbil scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Diyala conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Erbil has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Erbil VS Diyala
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Erbil

(Home)
08 Nov
Erbil
1 : 1
Al Gharraf
04 Nov
Erbil
6 : 0
Kazma SC
30 Oct
Erbil
1 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
28 Oct
Erbil
3 : 0
Al Ettifaq FC
22 Oct
Zakho
2 : 1
Erbil
Page 1 of 6

Diyala

(Away)
05 Nov
Diyala
0 : 0
Al Minaa
31 Oct
Al Zawraa
2 : 0
Diyala
24 Oct
Newroz
0 : 0
Diyala
16 Oct
Diyala
2 : 0
Naft Missan
09 Oct
Al Naft
2 : 0
Diyala
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 13 9 3 1 23:10 30
2 Newroz 13 7 5 1 18:5 26
3 Al Naft 13 7 4 2 15:7 25
4 Al Shorta 13 6 6 1 15:7 24
5 Al Golan 13 6 5 2 19:12 23
6 Al Zawraa 13 6 3 4 17:12 21
7 Erbil 13 5 5 3 16:9 20
8 Duhok 13 4 6 3 20:16 18
9 Al Minaa 13 4 5 4 12:13 17
10 Ghaz Al Shamal 13 3 7 3 9:10 16
11 Al Talaba 13 3 7 3 15:18 16
12 Diyala 13 3 5 5 15:18 14
13 Al Gharraf 13 3 5 5 9:15 14
14 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 13 2 7 4 14:14 13
15 Zakho 13 3 4 6 10:17 13
16 Al Karkh 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
17 Al Mosul 13 3 3 7 13:21 12
18 Al Kahraba 13 2 5 6 9:15 11
19 Naft Missan 13 1 6 6 8:19 9
20 Karbala 13 1 4 8 11:25 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)