Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Erciyes 38 vs Malatya

Turkey Turkey

3. Lig Group 1 2025/2026 RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayseri
Fri, May 8, 2026
3 - 4
05:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Kanarya T.
(Penalty)
14' Event
Uzun O.
Assist: Kanarya T.
18' Event
Kanarya T.
Assist: Tutcuoglu G.

AI Match Summary

Malatya in this 3. Lig Group 1 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-4. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Erciyes 38
15%
Draws
46%
Malatya
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Malatya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Erciyes 38 haven't matched Malatya's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Malatya a 46% chance of winning this.
  • Malatya arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Malatya, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Erciyes 38 Clean Sheet 17%
Malatya Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erciyes 38 Malatya
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 13 18
Draws 9 6
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 1.41 1.81
Goals Conceded 1.14 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2026 3. Lig Group 1
Erciyes 38 vs Malatya
3:4
May 4, 2026 3. Lig Group 1
Malatya vs Erciyes 38
0:0
Feb 15, 2026 3. Lig Group 2
Erciyes 38 vs Malatya
1:4
Oct 12, 2025 3. Lig Group 2
Malatya vs Erciyes 38
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erciyes 38 Compare

Top Goalscorer Balci E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kunduzcu U. B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Malatya Compare

Top Goalscorer Uzun O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kanarya T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erciyes 38 10 / 100
Malatya 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erciyes 38 Malatya

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Malatya Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Erciyes 38's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Malatya conceded in 65% of 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Erciyes 38 stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Erciyes 38 VS Malatya
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Erciyes 38

(Home)
27 Sept
Erciyes 38
2 : 1
Kirikkale FK
19 Sept
Diyarbekirspor (Est. 1977)
0 : 0
Erciyes 38
12 Sept
Erciyes 38
2 : 1
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
06 Sept
Agri 1970
0 : 1
Erciyes 38
08 May
Erciyes 38
3 : 4
Malatya
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Malatya

(Away)
27 Sept
Malatya
8 : 0
Adanaspor AS
19 Sept
Osmaniyespor
0 : 1
Malatya
12 Sept
Malatya
3 : 1
Kirikkale FK
06 Sept
Diyarbekirspor (Est. 1977)
0 : 1
Malatya
16 May
Corluspor
1 : 0
Malatya
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Corluspor 4
Bursa Yildirimspor 3
Kucukcekmece 2
Etimesgut 1
Erciyes 38 3
Mazidagi 1
Silifke 2
Malatya 4
52 Orduspor 7
Fatsa Bld. 2
Karadeniz Eregli 0
Yozgat 4
Eskisehirspor 4
Balikesirspor 2
Karsiyaka 0
Ayvalikgucu 2
Semi-finals
Corluspor 4
Kucukcekmece 2
Erciyes 38 3
Malatya 4
52 Orduspor 2
Yozgat 1
Eskisehirspor 0
Ayvalikgucu 2
Final
Corluspor 1
Malatya 0
52 Orduspor 2
Ayvalikgucu 1