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Ermis Exochis vs Elassona - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Gamma Ethniki - Group 4
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AI Match Summary

The Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 game between Ermis Exochis and Elassona finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ermis Exochis.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Ermis Exochis
30%
Draws
23%
Elassona
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ermis Exochis

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Elassona come out ahead of Ermis Exochis on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Ermis Exochis's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 14.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Ermis Exochis Clean Sheet 20%
Elassona Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ermis Exochis Elassona
Matches Played 29 35
Wins 13 14
Draws 7 12
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.59 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.07 0.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Gamma Ethniki - Group 4
Ermis Exochis vs Elassona
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ermis Exochis 67 / 100
Elassona 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ermis Exochis Elassona

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ermis Exochis Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Ermis Exochis scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Elassona has conceded goals in 63% of their last 35 outings.

Ermis Exochis has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ermis Exochis VS Elassona
1.14 Goals Scored 1
0.86 Goals Conceded 1
57% Over 1.5 75%
29% Over 2.5 38%
29% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ermis Exochis

(Home)
04 Oct
Ermis Exochis
3 : 1
Elassona
26 Sept
Anthoupoli
1 : 1
Ermis Exochis
08 Apr
Ermis Exochis
1 : 0
Philippos Alexandreia
05 Apr
Apollon Kalamaria
2 : 0
Ermis Exochis
01 Apr
Ermis Exochis
2 : 2
Veria
Page 1 of 6

Elassona

(Away)
04 Oct
Ermis Exochis
3 : 1
Elassona
26 Sept
Elassona
3 : 0
Ethnikos Neou
17 May
Elassona
2 : 3
Ethnikos Neou
13 May
Elassona
0 : 0
Apollon Kalamaria
10 May
Panthrakikos
5 : 1
Elassona
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AO Trikala 2 2 0 0 2:0 6
2 Anthoupoli 2 1 1 0 4:1 4
3 Ermis Exochis 2 1 1 0 4:2 4
4 Elassona 2 1 0 1 4:3 3
5 Karitsa 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
6 Sarakinos Volos 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
7 Pierikos 2 1 0 1 3:2 3
8 Ethnikos Neou 2 1 0 1 1:3 3
9 Feraios 2 0 0 2 0:2 0
10 Digenis Neochori 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
11 AE Iraklis Larissa 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 (Winners stage)
Relegation - Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 (Losers stage)