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Erpe-Mere vs Aalst

Belgium Belgium

Second Amateur Division Group VFV A 2022/2023
Sun, Mar 5, 2023
0 - 5
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Erpe-Mere host Aalst in the Second Amateur Division Group VFV A 2022/2023. Aalst are expected to control this from the start. Aalst have shipped 1.06 goals a game lately, while Erpe-Mere have conceded 2.94 and scored 0.87. Past meetings favor Aalst slightly — 0-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 5, 2023, ending 0:5. The numbers (1.20 xG vs 1.00) point toward Aalst. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Erpe-Mere
15%
Draws
51%
Aalst
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aalst

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Aalst come out ahead of Erpe-Mere on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Aalst's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Erpe-Mere Clean Sheet 20%
Aalst Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erpe-Mere Aalst
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 4 18
Draws 2 6
Losses 25 7
Goals Scored 0.87 1.87
Goals Conceded 2.94 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 5, 2023 Second Amateur Division Group VFV A
Erpe-Mere vs Aalst
0:5
Oct 15, 2022 Second Amateur Division Group VFV A
Aalst vs Erpe-Mere
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erpe-Mere 10 / 100
Aalst 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erpe-Mere Aalst

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aalst Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Erpe-Mere's goal record stands at 65% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Aalst has conceded goals in 61% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Erpe-Mere remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Erpe-Mere VS Aalst
0 Goals Scored 1.38
3 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 50%
100% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Erpe-Mere

(Home)
11 Aug
Aywaille
3 : 0
Erpe-Mere
20 Aug
Ninove
3 : 1
Erpe-Mere
13 Aug
Erpe-Mere
3 : 2
Raeren-Eynatten
06 Aug
Walhain
1 : 2
Erpe-Mere
14 May
Olsa Brakel
3 : 0
Erpe-Mere
Page 1 of 7

Aalst

(Away)
05 May
Aalst
1 : 3
Gullegem
28 Apr
KRC Harelbeke
1 : 0
Aalst
21 Apr
Aalst
3 : 0
Ninove
14 Apr
Olsa Brakel
2 : 3
Aalst
07 Apr
Aalst
4 : 1
Oostkamp
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sporting Lokeren 34 22 7 5 66:35 73
2 Petegem 34 17 8 9 68:55 59
3 Oostkamp 34 16 10 8 77:51 58
4 Cercle Brugge 2 34 16 7 11 54:43 55
5 KRC Gent 34 15 8 11 63:51 53
6 Merelbeke 34 14 11 9 47:36 53
7 Aalst 34 15 6 13 55:44 51
8 Waregem 2 34 14 8 12 64:49 50
9 Dikkelvenne 34 14 8 12 53:55 50
10 Oudenaarde 34 13 10 11 60:64 49
11 Zelzate 34 13 6 15 53:55 45
12 Torhout 34 12 8 14 57:46 44
13 Olsa Brakel 34 12 8 14 49:54 44
14 KRC Harelbeke 34 11 8 15 46:60 41
15 Gullegem 34 10 11 13 57:53 41
16 RFC Wetteren 34 9 8 17 41:67 35
17 Westhoek 34 8 11 15 44:66 35
18 Erpe-Mere 34 2 3 29 23:93 9
Promotion - National Division 1 (Main)
Promotion - Second Amateur Division Group ACFF 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Second Amateur Division Group ACFF 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Second Amateur Division Group VFV A 2022/2023 (Relegation)