Sport Picks
Ertis Pavlodar vs Kaspij Aktau
Kazakhstan
Premier League Centralnyj Stadion, Pavlodar 
Match Events
9'
9'
Bekmyrza A.
12'
12'
Ndombasi N.
Assist: Sylla K.
14'
14'
Kabylan B.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League game between Ertis Pavlodar and Kaspij Aktau finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ertis Pavlodar.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
48%
15%
37%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ertis Pavlodar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Kaspij Aktau come out ahead of Ertis Pavlodar on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Ertis Pavlodar's way, sitting at 42%.
- Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Ertis Pavlodar Clean Sheet 14%
Kaspij Aktau Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ertis Pavlodar | Kaspij Aktau |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 10 |
| Draws | 9 | 5 |
| Losses | 12 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.03 | 1.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.31 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 1, 2026 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Kaspij Aktau
3:2
May 22, 2026 Premier League
Kaspij Aktau vs Ertis Pavlodar
2:2
Sep 12, 2025 First League
Kaspij Aktau vs Ertis Pavlodar
2:0
Jun 13, 2025 First League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Kaspij Aktau
0:2
Mar 23, 2025 Kazakhstan Cup
Kaspij Aktau vs Ertis Pavlodar
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ertis Pavlodar Compare
Top Goalscorer Poe J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Shimamura Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Kaspij Aktau Compare
Top Goalscorer Ndombasi N.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ertis Pavlodar 41 / 100
Kaspij Aktau 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ertis Pavlodar Kaspij Aktau
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Ertis Pavlodar scored in 68% of their last 28 games.
Kaspij Aktau let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.
Ertis Pavlodar has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Ertis Pavlodar VS Kaspij Aktau
1 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Ertis Pavlodar
(Home) 18 Sept
Altai
1 : 2 Ertis Pavlodar
13 Sept
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Okzhetpes
05 Sept
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
1 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
30 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Aktobe
16 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 2 Tobol
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Okzhetpes
30 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Aktobe
16 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 2 Tobol
01 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
3 : 2 Kaspij Aktau
11 Jul
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 1 Zhenis
Page 1 of 3
Kaspij Aktau
(Away) 18 Sept
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
0 : 1 Kaspij Aktau
12 Sept
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 2 Aktobe
05 Sept
Kaspij Aktau
0 : 3 Kairat Almaty
30 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 0 Tobol
16 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
2 : 2 Yelimay Semey
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
0 : 1 Kaspij Aktau
01 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
3 : 2 Kaspij Aktau
18 Jul
Kaisar Kyzylorda
1 : 1 Kaspij Aktau
05 Jul
Atyrau
1 : 2 Kaspij Aktau
20 Jun
Ordabasy
2 : 0 Kaspij Aktau
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 51:18 | 61 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 51:20 | 57 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 42:25 | 48 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 41:35 | 45 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38:31 | 42 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 35:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 8 | Zhenis | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26:32 | 32 |
| 9 | Ulytau | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 24:32 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspij Aktau | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 27:36 | 29 |
| 11 | Ertis Pavlodar | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 26:34 | 26 |
| 12 | Altai | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 26:36 | 25 |
| 13 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 22:33 | 24 |
| 14 | Kyzylzhar | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 26:40 | 24 |
| 15 | Atyrau | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 18:28 | 23 |
| 16 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 26:44 | 22 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)
