Sport Picks
Ertis Pavlodar vs SD Family - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Kazakhstan
First League 2025 Centralnyj Stadion, Pavlodar 
Match Events
14'
14'
Abdullaev B.
28'
28'
Gerasimov M.
45'
45'
Fedin M.
Assist: Gerasimov M.
AI Match Summary
The First League 2025 game between Ertis Pavlodar and SD Family finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ertis Pavlodar.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
85%
15%
0%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ertis Pavlodar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Ertis Pavlodar carry the better recent record into this one.
- 85% — that's where the model lands on Ertis Pavlodar taking it.
- Regular First League 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Ertis Pavlodar here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Ertis Pavlodar Clean Sheet 20%
SD Family Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ertis Pavlodar | SD Family |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 8 |
| Draws | 8 | 2 |
| Losses | 12 | 20 |
| Goals Scored | 1.3 | 1.33 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.3 | 2.77 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.97 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 9, 2026 Kazakhstan Cup
SD Family vs Ertis Pavlodar
0:0
Sep 25, 2025 First League
SD Family vs Ertis Pavlodar
2:7
Jun 27, 2025 First League
Ertis Pavlodar vs SD Family
3:0
Mar 19, 2025 Kazakhstan Cup
Ertis Pavlodar vs SD Family
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ertis Pavlodar Compare
Top Goalscorer Smailov A.
2 Goals Assists Leader Fedin M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48
SD Family Compare
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ertis Pavlodar 85 / 100
SD Family 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ertis Pavlodar SD Family
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ertis Pavlodar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
SD Family has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.
Historical meetings average 3.75 goals per match.
SD Family lost 5 of their last 5 games.
Ertis Pavlodar scored in 69% of their last 29 games.
Scoring Trends
Ertis Pavlodar VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Ertis Pavlodar
(Home) 18 Sept
Altai
1 : 2 Ertis Pavlodar
13 Sept
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Okzhetpes
05 Sept
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
1 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
30 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Aktobe
16 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 2 Tobol
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Okzhetpes
30 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Aktobe
16 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 2 Tobol
01 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
3 : 2 Kaspij Aktau
11 Jul
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 1 Zhenis
Page 1 of 3
SD Family
(Away) 09 Apr
SD Family
: Ertis Pavlodar
24 Oct
Kairat Almaty 2
5 : 1 SD Family
17 Oct
SD Family
2 : 7 Aktobe 2
02 Oct
FC Ekibastuz
3 : 2 SD Family
25 Sept
SD Family
2 : 7 Ertis Pavlodar
Page 1 of 6
24 Oct
Kairat Almaty 2
5 : 1 SD Family
02 Oct
FC Ekibastuz
3 : 2 SD Family
18 Sept
Khan Tengri
1 : 1 SD Family
12 Sept
Altai
4 : 0 SD Family
22 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
10 : 0 SD Family
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaspij Aktau | 26 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 74:27 | 68 |
| 2 | Ertis Pavlodar | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 71:20 | 61 |
| 3 | Altai | 26 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 54:23 | 55 |
| 4 | Shakhter Karagandy | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 61:34 | 53 |
| 5 | Zhetisay | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 44:35 | 42 |
| 6 | Kairat Almaty 2 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 58:42 | 40 |
| 7 | Akademiya Ontustik | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 44:44 | 39 |
| 8 | Taraz | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 43:38 | 35 |
| 9 | AKAS | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 42:39 | 33 |
| 10 | FC Ekibastuz | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 36:60 | 28 |
| 11 | SD Family | 26 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 33:75 | 23 |
| 12 | Khan Tengri | 26 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 27:55 | 18 |
| 13 | Aktobe 2 | 26 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 34:65 | 16 |
| 14 | Turkistan | 26 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 16:80 | 9 |
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