Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ertis Pavlodar vs Ulytau

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Centralnyj Stadion, Pavlodar
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Smith A.
46'
Sub
Nechayev D. In: Nyrkov D.
Out: Nechayev D.
48'
Agimanov T.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Ertis Pavlodar
15%
Draws
26%
Ulytau
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ertis Pavlodar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Ulytau have won more games recently than Ertis Pavlodar.
  • 59% — that's where the model lands on Ertis Pavlodar taking it.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Ertis Pavlodar Clean Sheet 68%
Ulytau Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ertis Pavlodar Ulytau
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 10
Draws 9 9
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.03 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Premier League
Ulytau vs Ertis Pavlodar
1:2
May 27, 2026 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Ulytau
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ertis Pavlodar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Ulytau Compare

Top Goalscorer Smith A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ertis Pavlodar 50 / 100
Ulytau 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ertis Pavlodar Ulytau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ertis Pavlodar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ertis Pavlodar scored in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Ulytau let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Ertis Pavlodar remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ertis Pavlodar VS Ulytau
1 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ertis Pavlodar

(Home)
18 Sept
Altai
1 : 2
Ertis Pavlodar
13 Sept
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1
Okzhetpes
05 Sept
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
1 : 0
Ertis Pavlodar
30 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1
Aktobe
16 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 2
Tobol
Page 1 of 6

Ulytau

(Away)
18 Sept
Aktobe
2 : 2
Ulytau
13 Sept
Ulytau
0 : 3
Altai
06 Sept
Tobol
3 : 1
Ulytau
29 Aug
Ulytau
3 : 0
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
15 Aug
Kairat Almaty
3 : 1
Ulytau
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 26 19 4 3 51:18 61
2 Kairat Almaty 26 17 6 3 51:20 57
3 FC Astana 25 14 6 5 42:25 48
4 Okzhetpes 26 13 6 7 41:35 45
5 Aktobe 26 12 6 8 38:31 42
6 Yelimay Semey 25 10 8 7 35:33 38
7 Tobol 26 10 4 12 33:35 34
8 Zhenis 26 8 8 10 26:32 32
9 Ulytau 26 8 8 10 24:32 32
10 Kaspij Aktau 26 8 5 13 27:36 29
11 Ertis Pavlodar 25 6 8 11 26:34 26
12 Altai 26 6 7 13 26:36 25
13 Kaisar Kyzylorda 26 4 12 10 22:33 24
14 Kyzylzhar 26 6 6 14 26:40 24
15 Atyrau 25 4 11 10 18:28 23
16 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 26 5 7 14 26:44 22
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)