Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ertis Pavlodar vs Ulytau

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Centralnyj Stadion, Pavlodar
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Smith A.
46'
Sub
Nechaev D. In: Nyrkov D.
Out: Nechaev D.
48'
Agimanov T.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Ertis Pavlodar
30%
Draws
34%
Ulytau
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ertis Pavlodar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Ulytau have won more games recently than Ertis Pavlodar.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Ertis Pavlodar taking it.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Ertis Pavlodar Clean Sheet 20%
Ulytau Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ertis Pavlodar Ulytau
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 8 10
Draws 9 9
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 0.75 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.25 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 27, 2026 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Ulytau
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ertis Pavlodar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Ulytau Compare

Top Goalscorer Smith A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ertis Pavlodar 36 / 100
Ulytau 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ertis Pavlodar Ulytau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ertis Pavlodar scored in 69% of their last 26 outings.

Ulytau let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Ertis Pavlodar remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ertis Pavlodar VS Ulytau
0.75 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ertis Pavlodar

(Home)
11 Jul
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 1
Zhenis
05 Jul
Kaisar Kyzylorda
0 : 0
Ertis Pavlodar
28 Jun
Ertis Pavlodar
1 : 2
Kaisar Kyzylorda
20 Jun
Zhenis
0 : 0
Ertis Pavlodar
14 Jun
FC Astana
2 : 0
Ertis Pavlodar
Page 1 of 6

Ulytau

(Away)
18 Jul
Zhenis
1 : 1
Ulytau
12 Jul
Ulytau
1 : 0
Kaisar Kyzylorda
05 Jul
Ordabasy
1 : 0
Ulytau
28 Jun
Ulytau
0 : 1
Ordabasy
20 Jun
Kaisar Kyzylorda
0 : 0
Ulytau
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ordabasy18134133:1343
2Kairat Almaty19126137:1342
3Okzhetpes1886424:2430
4FC Astana1785425:1929
5Aktobe1884626:2028
6Ulytau1876515:1627
7Yelimay Semey1775525:2226
8Zhenis1857615:2022
9Tobol1854920:2619
10Kaisar Kyzylorda19310614:2119
11Atyrau1739513:1618
12Zhetysu Taldykorgan1846821:2718
13Kaspij Aktau18531016:2318
14Kyzylzhar18441018:2616
15Altai1837814:2216
16Ertis Pavlodar1718814:2211
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)