Sport Picks
Ertis Pavlodar vs Zhetysu Taldykorgan
Kazakhstan
Premier League Centralnyj Stadion, Pavlodar 
Match Events
6'
6'
Adakhadziev A.
46'
46'
Sub
Agimanov T. In: Poe J.
Out: Agimanov T.
46'
46'
Sub
Shvyrev V. In: Turlybek M.
Out: Shvyrev V.
AI Match Summary
Zhetysu Taldykorgan in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Zhetysu Taldykorgan.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
30%
39%
31%
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ Medium Confidence
- Zhetysu Taldykorgan average 1.25 goals a game right now, well clear of Ertis Pavlodar's 0.75.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Ertis Pavlodar Clean Sheet 68%
Zhetysu Taldykorgan Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ertis Pavlodar | Zhetysu Taldykorgan |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 30 |
| Wins | 8 | 8 |
| Draws | 9 | 8 |
| Losses | 10 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.25 | 1.63 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 18, 2026 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Zhetysu Taldykorgan
1:2
Nov 8, 2020 Premier League
Zhetysu Taldykorgan vs Ertis Pavlodar
0:0
Jun 27, 2020 Premier League
Zhetysu Taldykorgan vs Ertis Pavlodar
0:0
Apr 26, 2020 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Zhetysu Taldykorgan
0:0
Oct 5, 2019 Premier League
Zhetysu Taldykorgan vs Ertis Pavlodar
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ertis Pavlodar Compare
Top Goalscorer Sedko P.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Zhetysu Taldykorgan Compare
Top Goalscorer Adakhadziev A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Zivanovic M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ertis Pavlodar 41 / 100
Zhetysu Taldykorgan 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ertis Pavlodar Zhetysu Taldykorgan
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick ERT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ertis Pavlodar found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (26 games).
Zhetysu Taldykorgan has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.
Zhetysu Taldykorgan's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
Historical meetings average 1.20 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Ertis Pavlodar VS Zhetysu Taldykorgan
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Ertis Pavlodar
(Home) 11 Jul
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 1 Zhenis
05 Jul
Kaisar Kyzylorda
0 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
28 Jun
Ertis Pavlodar
1 : 2 Kaisar Kyzylorda
20 Jun
Zhenis
0 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
14 Jun
FC Astana
2 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
Page 1 of 6
11 Jul
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 1 Zhenis
28 Jun
Ertis Pavlodar
1 : 2 Kaisar Kyzylorda
27 May
Ertis Pavlodar
1 : 1 Ulytau
16 May
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 2 Yelimay Semey
02 May
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 1 Kairat Almaty
Page 1 of 3
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
(Away) 18 Jul
Okzhetpes
2 : 0 Zhetysu Taldykorgan
11 Jul
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
0 : 1 Altai
05 Jul
Aktobe
2 : 1 Zhetysu Taldykorgan
27 Jun
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
1 : 0 Aktobe
20 Jun
Altai
3 : 3 Zhetysu Taldykorgan
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Okzhetpes
2 : 0 Zhetysu Taldykorgan
05 Jul
Aktobe
2 : 1 Zhetysu Taldykorgan
20 Jun
Altai
3 : 3 Zhetysu Taldykorgan
28 May
Kyzylzhar
3 : 2 Zhetysu Taldykorgan
17 May
Ordabasy
2 : 1 Zhetysu Taldykorgan
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 33:13 | 43 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 19 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 37:13 | 42 |
| 3 | Okzhetpes | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 24:24 | 30 |
| 4 | FC Astana | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 25:19 | 29 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 26:20 | 28 |
| 6 | Ulytau | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 15:16 | 27 |
| 7 | Yelimay Semey | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25:22 | 26 |
| 8 | Zhenis | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 15:20 | 22 |
| 9 | Tobol | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 20:26 | 19 |
| 10 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 19 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 14:21 | 19 |
| 11 | Atyrau | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 13:16 | 18 |
| 12 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21:27 | 18 |
| 13 | Kaspij Aktau | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 16:23 | 18 |
| 14 | Kyzylzhar | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 18:26 | 16 |
| 15 | Altai | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 14:22 | 16 |
| 16 | Ertis Pavlodar | 17 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 14:22 | 11 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)