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Ertis Pavlodar W vs Shakhter Karagandy W

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

League Women
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Nurgazina Z.
86' Event
Bigozhina A.
Assist: Zainutdinova S.

AI Match Summary

The League Women game between Ertis Pavlodar W and Shakhter Karagandy W finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Ertis Pavlodar W
6%
Draws
4%
Shakhter Karagandy W
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Ertis Pavlodar W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Ertis Pavlodar W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Ertis Pavlodar W taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Ertis Pavlodar W Clean Sheet 20%
Shakhter Karagandy W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ertis Pavlodar W Shakhter Karagandy W
Matches Played 10 10
Wins 3 2
Draws 3 1
Losses 4 7
Goals Scored 1.5 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.25 5.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 5.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2026 League Women
Ertis Pavlodar W vs Shakhter Karagandy W
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ertis Pavlodar W Compare

Top Goalscorer Bigozhina A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Shakhter Karagandy W Compare

Top Goalscorer Nurgazina Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ertis Pavlodar W 85 / 100
Shakhter Karagandy W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ertis Pavlodar W Shakhter Karagandy W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ERT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ertis Pavlodar W scored in 80% of their last 10 games.

Shakhter Karagandy W let in goals in 90% of their last 10 matches.

Difficult form: Shakhter Karagandy W registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Ertis Pavlodar W VS Shakhter Karagandy W
1.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 5.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1BIIK Shymkent W990081:027
2Tomiris-Turan W970222:721
3Kaisar Kyzylorda W961214:1319
4Atyrau W942314:1914
5Kairat W841320:1013
6Ordabasy W932410:2211
7Zhetysu W1022611:248
8Ulytau W90181:361
9Kaspij Aktau W80170:421
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Aktobe W111100108:233
2Zhenis Astana W1081149:1825
3Yelimay Semey W1161428:2019
4Kyzylzhar W1052330:1417
5FC Astana W1051419:2416
6Tobol W1050513:2715
7Ertis Pavlodar W1033414:1512
8Shakhter Karagandy W102175:617
9Okzhetpes W101098:533
10Altai W100195:451