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Esperanca vs Penya - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Andorra Andorra

Primera Divisió 2025/2026
Esperanca Logo

Esperanca

0 - 1
FT
Penya Logo

Penya

Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Cardoso M.
36'
Mesquita Lopes de Souza R. M.
41' Event
Llorente D.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Penya in this Primera Divisió 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penya.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Esperanca
30%
Draws
12%
Penya
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Esperanca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Esperanca average 1.08 goals a game right now, well clear of Penya's 0.77.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Esperanca taking it.
  • Regular Primera Divisió 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Penya here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Esperanca Clean Sheet 68%
Penya Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esperanca Penya
Matches Played 26 26
Wins 6 6
Draws 4 5
Losses 16 15
Goals Scored 1.08 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2026 Primera Divisió
Esperanca vs Penya
0:1
Feb 1, 2026 Primera Divisió
Penya vs Esperanca
1:0
Nov 9, 2025 Primera Divisió
Esperanca vs Penya
0:1
Apr 27, 2025 Primera Divisió
Penya vs Esperanca
4:1
Feb 16, 2025 Primera Divisió
Esperanca vs Penya
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esperanca 95 / 100
Penya 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esperanca Penya

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esperanca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penya's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 26 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Esperanca stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Penya's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Esperanca VS Penya
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Esperanca

(Home)
20 Sept
Esperanca
4 : 0
Ordino
13 Sept
FC Rangers
2 : 1
Esperanca
06 Sept
Esperanca
2 : 2
Inter Escaldes
27 May
Esperanca
2 : 0
Sporting Escaldes
23 May
Sporting Escaldes
1 : 3
Esperanca
Page 1 of 6

Penya

(Away)
19 Sept
Carroi
2 : 2
Penya
13 Sept
FC Santa Coloma
4 : 0
Penya
06 Sept
Penya
1 : 1
Atletic Escaldes
17 May
Atletic Escaldes
2 : 0
Penya
10 May
Penya
1 : 2
FC Rangers
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter Escaldes 24 17 3 4 47:24 54
2 UE Santa Coloma 24 14 6 4 42:16 48
3 FC Rangers 24 15 3 6 46:22 48
4 FC Santa Coloma 24 13 5 6 45:20 44
5 Atletic Escaldes 24 10 4 10 31:26 34
6 Penya 24 7 3 14 19:41 24
7 Ordino 24 6 4 14 27:42 22
8 Carroi 24 4 5 15 15:55 17
9 Esperanca 24 3 5 16 18:44 14
10 Pas de la Casa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Primera Divisió 2025/2026 (Relegation)