Sport Picks
Esperance Tunis vs AS Marsa
Tunisia
Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi, Radès 
Match Events
10'
10'
Jelassi H.
(Penalty)
46'
46'
Sub
Mestari S. In: Hammami K.
Out: Mestari S.
46'
46'
Sub
Iffia F. In: Kalu G.
Out: Iffia F.
AI Match Summary
Esperance Tunis in this Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Esperance Tunis.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
48%
15%
37%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Esperance Tunis
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Esperance Tunis have won more games recently than AS Marsa.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on Esperance Tunis taking it.
- Regular Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Esperance Tunis have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
Esperance Tunis Clean Sheet 20%
AS Marsa Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Esperance Tunis | AS Marsa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 32 | 30 |
| Wins | 21 | 12 |
| Draws | 6 | 3 |
| Losses | 5 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.59 | 1.07 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.63 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 6, 2026 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Esperance Tunis vs AS Marsa
2:1
Aug 8, 2026 Club Friendly
Esperance Tunis vs AS Marsa
1:2
Mar 7, 2026 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Esperance Tunis vs AS Marsa
1:0
Oct 1, 2025 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Marsa vs Esperance Tunis
0:3
Dec 5, 2023 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Marsa vs Esperance Tunis
0:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Esperance Tunis 42 / 100
AS Marsa 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Esperance Tunis AS Marsa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Esperance Tunis scored in 84% of their last 32 games.
AS Marsa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.
Esperance Tunis went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Esperance Tunis VS AS Marsa
1.5 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Esperance Tunis
(Home) 13 Sept
Hammam-Lif
0 : 1 Esperance Tunis
06 Sept
Esperance Tunis
2 : 1 AS Marsa
30 Aug
Jeunesse Sportive
3 : 1 Esperance Tunis
23 Aug
Esperance Tunis
3 : 2 Etoile Sahel
08 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 2 AS Marsa
Page 1 of 7
06 Sept
Esperance Tunis
2 : 1 AS Marsa
23 Aug
Esperance Tunis
3 : 2 Etoile Sahel
08 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 2 AS Marsa
06 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 0 San Pedro
04 Aug
Esperance Tunis
2 : 2 Al Hazem Rass
Page 1 of 4
AS Marsa
(Away) 12 Sept
AS Marsa
1 : 0 Etoile Sahel
06 Sept
Esperance Tunis
2 : 1 AS Marsa
29 Aug
AS Marsa
0 : 0 PS Sakiet Eddaier
23 Aug
CA Bizertin
1 : 0 AS Marsa
08 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 2 AS Marsa
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Esperance Tunis
2 : 1 AS Marsa
23 Aug
CA Bizertin
1 : 0 AS Marsa
08 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 2 AS Marsa
12 May
Jeunesse Sportive
2 : 2 AS Marsa
04 May
CA Bizertin
1 : 2 AS Marsa
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Africain | 30 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 43:10 | 66 |
| 2 | Esperance Tunis | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 45:11 | 63 |
| 3 | CS Sfaxien | 30 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 44:13 | 62 |
| 4 | Stade Tunisien | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 28:14 | 48 |
| 5 | Monastir | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 28:19 | 45 |
| 6 | Zarzis | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 30:28 | 41 |
| 7 | Etoile Sahel | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 28:30 | 41 |
| 8 | Metlaoui | 30 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 19:25 | 40 |
| 9 | Jeunesse Sportive | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 24:33 | 36 |
| 10 | Ben Guerdane | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 18:22 | 35 |
| 11 | AS Marsa | 30 | 11 | 2 | 17 | 26:33 | 35 |
| 12 | CA Bizertin | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 18:29 | 33 |
| 13 | Olympique Beja | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 18:39 | 32 |
| 14 | JS Kairouan | 30 | 9 | 4 | 17 | 20:41 | 31 |
| 15 | Soliman | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 15:31 | 27 |
| 16 | AS Gabes | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 11:37 | 18 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)
