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Esperance Tunis vs Mamelodi Sundowns

Africa Africa

CAF Champions League 2025/2026 Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi, Radès
Esperance Tunis Logo

Esperance Tunis

0 - 1
FT
Mamelodi Sundowns Logo

Mamelodi Sundowns

Our Tip

Match Events

51' Event
Leon B.
Assist: Morena T.
63'
Sub
Boualia K. In: Diakite A.
Out: Boualia K.
63'
Sub
Yan Sasse In: Diarra J.
Out: Yan Sasse
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-1, with Mamelodi Sundowns advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Esperance Tunis
20%
Draws
40%
Mamelodi Sundowns
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Mamelodi Sundowns haven't matched Esperance Tunis's recent run of results.
  • Esperance Tunis are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Esperance Tunis have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Mamelodi Sundowns, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 65.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Esperance Tunis Clean Sheet 68%
Mamelodi Sundowns Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esperance Tunis Mamelodi Sundowns
Matches Played 33 27
Wins 19 16
Draws 9 7
Losses 5 4
Goals Scored 1.42 1.78
Goals Conceded 0.61 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 CAF Champions League
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Esperance Tunis
1:0
Apr 12, 2026 CAF Champions League
Esperance Tunis vs Mamelodi Sundowns
0:1
Apr 8, 2025 CAF Champions League
Esperance Tunis vs Mamelodi Sundowns
0:0
Apr 1, 2025 CAF Champions League
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Esperance Tunis
1:0
Apr 26, 2024 CAF Champions League
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Esperance Tunis
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Esperance Tunis Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Mamelodi Sundowns Compare

Top Goalscorer Leon B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esperance Tunis 46 / 100
Mamelodi Sundowns 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esperance Tunis Mamelodi Sundowns

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esperance Tunis found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (33 games).

Mamelodi Sundowns's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 27 matches.

Esperance Tunis has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

These sides typically produce 0.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Esperance Tunis VS Mamelodi Sundowns
1.14 Goals Scored 1.5
0.86 Goals Conceded 1.25
43% Over 1.5 88%
43% Over 2.5 38%
29% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Esperance Tunis

(Home)
23 Aug
Esperance Tunis
3 : 2
Etoile Sahel
08 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 2
AS Marsa
06 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 0
San Pedro
04 Aug
Esperance Tunis
2 : 2
Al Hazem Rass
31 May
Zarzis
0 : 1
Esperance Tunis
Page 1 of 7

Mamelodi Sundowns

(Away)
23 Aug
Mamelodi Sundowns
0 : 1
Golden Arrows
19 Aug
Mamelodi Sundowns
2 : 0
Marumo Gallants
15 Aug
Kaizer Chiefs
1 : 1
Mamelodi Sundowns
11 Aug
TS Galaxy
2 : 3
Mamelodi Sundowns
08 Aug
Mamelodi Sundowns
3 : 2
Polokwane City
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Esperance Tunis 4
Al Ahly 2
Mamelodi Sundowns 3
Stade Malien 2
FAR Rabat 3
Pyramids 2
Berkane 2
Al-Hilal Omdurman 1
Semi-finals
Esperance Tunis 0
Mamelodi Sundowns 2
FAR Rabat 2
Berkane 1
Final
Mamelodi Sundowns 2
FAR Rabat 1