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Essling vs SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf

World World

Club Friendly 2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with Essling averaging 1.5 xG at home and SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf producing 1.1 xG on their travels. Both back lines have been leakier than usual lately, which points to an open game with chances for both sides. History suggests plenty of goals when these two play. Over 2.5 goals seems highly likely based on recent attacking form. Everything points to a very close contest where a draw wouldn't surprise anyone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Essling
23%
Draws
37%
SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Essling

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Essling picked up more points recently compared to SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.48 vs 1.05 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 68%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 68%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66%
Essling Clean Sheet 22%
SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Essling SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
Matches Played 5 30
Wins 2 10
Draws 0 6
Losses 3 14
Goals Scored 2.8 1.4
Goals Conceded 4 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

19.02.25 Club Friendly
Essling vs SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
5:2
25.05.21 Club Friendly
Essling vs SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
3:6
01.08.20 Club Friendly
SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf vs Essling
0:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Essling

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Dangerous on corners
  • Overlap on the wings
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Vulnerable to counters
  • Weak in the air

SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Quick recovery
  • Solid midfield screen
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Fouling under pressure
  • Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Essling Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
9 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
7 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.37
Avg xA / game 0.91

SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
8 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
6 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.76

Availability Alerts

Key Defender SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder Essling • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker Essling • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Essling 40 / 100
SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Essling SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Essling or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.5%
1.61
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Essling will likely press early to force mistakes.

Essling 59%
SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf should settle down and try to slow the pace.

Essling 54%
SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

Essling 51%
SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect Essling to push more players wide.

Essling 56%
SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

Essling 51%
SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

Essling 62%
SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Essling attacking → ← attacking SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Essling have scored in 94% of their home games in the past 12 months.

SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf concede most goals (46%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 24 shots per game, well above the league median.

Essling are unbeaten in 7 straight matches when scoring first.

SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 8 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: Essling wants a European spot, while SV Gerasdorf Stammersdorf is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

6 Points in last 5 36
1.48 Goals expected (xG) 1.05
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2